Oscar nomination predictions
Tomorrow at 7:19 AM CT / 8:19 AM ET, Nick Jonas and Priyanka Chopra will announce the 2021 Oscar nominations. Who will make the cut? Who will get snubbed? My brother and I talk about it all! Below, we discuss the main categories and because our conversation got too long for Gmail to handle, you can find the design, score & song category predictions attached here. For each category, we rank the maximum number of nominees that are possible and provide some next in line and long shot predictions.
Note: These predictions are not who we think deserves nominations or wins but rather who we think the academy will nominate. This conversation has been edited & condensed. All predictions are listed in ranked order of most likely to get nominated.
Annie: The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have awarded their winners, nominations are out for all other major award shows and guilds this season – Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, British Academy of Film and Television Arts – have there been any surprises that have emerged that may influence Oscar nominations?
William: [silence]
Annie: What if you just said no?
William: No. Next question [laughs]. There still seems to be a big appreciation this year for independent films. There was always a fear they would still get rejected in the end and in the grand scheme of things when nominations happened that maybe they would be left behind and studio pictures would get nominated instead. It’s a pleasant surprise.
Annie: Are you going to wake up early and watch live?
William: I have decided that I am.
Annie: Me too!
Best Picture
Annie: Do you think they’ll nominate 10 films?
William: No. They haven’t nominated 10 since 2010. So it’s been a long time. It seems like it’ll probably be eight or nine. You’ve got the safe seven: Nomadland, Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami and Promising Young Woman. After that, it’s hard to say. The Father is such a good movie. It got nominated at the Golden Globes in Best Picture Drama and they only do five; I think there’s enough momentum for it to get in. I’m putting Sound of Metal next. I love Sound of Metal, it’s one of my favorite movies of the year. Sound of Metal has the ability to get nominated in those other categories and that’s why I think it has a bit of an edge over Judas. Judas is not expected to get nominated in a lot of other categories. Da 5 Bloods is nominated for cast at SAG, but Da 5 Bloods should have been showing up in other places. It took Spike Lee a long time to even get an Oscar nomination. He got his first win ever with BlacKkKlansman. People feel like that was one of his best and they don’t feel like Da 5 Bloods is one of his top films. The PGAs nominate 10 movies every year for Best Picture and they often have a lot of accuracy with Oscars, they usually run at about 80 percent accuracy. And what is nominated at PGA? Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal. They have The Father missing and News of the World. News of the World got in at Critics Choice and The Father missed. Sound of Metal got in. Judas missed. Da 5 Bloods got in. I’ll leave you with this warning, there’s a 10th film nominated at the PGAs, it shocked the world. On Monday morning, could we see Priyanka Chopra and Nick Jonas reading the best picture nominations in alphabetical order and could the first words out of their mouths be, “and the nominees for best picture are Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”? If it happens, the signs were there and I warned you.
Predictions:
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Father
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Next in Line: News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, The Mauritanian, Soul
Long Shot: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Director
William: The locks are Chloé Zhao, David Fincher. That’s the competition right there. I’m going with the DGA five, because I think it makes sense. I am predicting history being made here with two women being nominated, which seems scary, because only five women have been nominated ever for director and I’m predicting two in one year.
Annie: Emerald Fennell has gotten a lot of nominations for directing, so I don’t think it’s that out of left field.
William: I think Regina King could get in because she’s the excitement around One Night. The fifth spot I have is all first timers as runners up. Emerald Fennell, Regina King, Florian Zeller, Darius Marder, all first time directors. I think one of them is going to get the fifth spot. I almost want to have Sorkin as number four because no one likes the direction of that movie. If we miss all these first time directors, I think they’ll go with a name, a well-known director, like Paul Greengrass or Spike Lee.
Predictions:
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Next in Line: Regina King (One Night in Miami), Florian Zeller (The Father)
Long Shot: Darius Marder (Sound of Metal), Paul Greengrass (News of the World), Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)
Best Actor
William: This is the only acting category where I have the same people, the exact five, that are nominated for SAG as well. The three locks are Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins and Riz Ahmed; they've been showing up everywhere. I think the popularity of Minari is enough to get Steven Yeun nominated, even though he’s arguably not the lead. They’ve also been campaigning very hard for him and he’s even been on the cover of magazines. When push comes to shove, I think Gary Oldman is going to get nominated for Mank. He’s the whole movie, so if they like it, he’s an easy nomination. Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods, people say it’s one of the best performances of the decade, but he hasn’t been getting nominated anywhere, except for Critics Choice. Him missing SAG but then the cast of Da 5 Bloods getting nominated at SAG? People see that as a red flag for him getting nominated. There seems to be a big question of how much people like Da 5 Bloods, because it’s missing [nominations] in lots of crucial places. Tahar Rahim got nominated at Golden Globes and The Mauritanian has been showing up more and more everywhere, so it makes you wonder if there’s excitement building for it.
Predictions:
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Steven Yeun (Minari
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Next in Line: Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Long Shot: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
Best Actress
William: This is what I like to call the safe and easy five. They’re good. Everyone’s talking about them. Why get crazy and nominate anyone else outside of these five? The most vulnerable are my bottom two, Andra Day and Vanessa Kirby. Andra Day proved herself as a contender when she won the Golden Globe and that could be enough to write a narrative for her to not only get nominated, but win. Let it be known though, at SAG, Andra Day did not get nominated and Amy Adams did instead, and that’s why she’s my first next in line contender. The next, next in line contender is Sophia Loren. She’s a legendary actress. They’ve been campaigning hard but she hasn’t been showing up anywhere.
Predictions:
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Next in Line: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
Long Shot: Rosamund Pike (I Care A Lot), Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie), Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Supporting Actor
William: Daniel Kaluuya coming in for the win. I’m pretty sure he’s won everywhere he’s been nominated. In second and third place, Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Sacha Baron Cohen in Trial of the Chicago 7. Those are the safe three, they’re getting in. After that is where you start to wonder. You’ve got Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods, he got a SAG nomination for it and a few others, but he’s not in a lot of the movie. On Oscar morning, we will say a prayer that Paul Raci for Sound of Metal gets the fifth spot for an amazing performance, so good, so layered. He’s the crowd favorite, he’s the critic’s favorite. But does he do enough to get in? It’s very unconventional [performance] in a way. You’ve got Jared Leto in The Little Things. He got SAG and Golden Globe nominations. He’s won an Oscar before. What if they really like The Trial of the Chicago 7? The whole cast is smashed in this category. Are they going to nominate someone else? If they do, it’s going to be a big actor, a well-known actor. You’ve got your Frank Langella, you’ve got your Mark Rylance. Or you have a moment that could break the internet, cause tears throughout the nation, Alan Kim! Fresh off his win at Critics Choice and BAFTA nomination. He is eight years old. He’s kind of like the lead in the movie.
Predictions:
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Next in Line: Jared Leto (The Little Things), Alan Kim (Minari), Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Long Shot: Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7), David Strathairn (Nomadland), Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Best Supporting Actress
William: This is a very difficult category. It might be the hardest one. Who knows what’ll happen? People have been showing up. People have been missing. People have surprisingly won. It’s a constant back and forth. I don’t even think anyone’s safe. This order is almost me taking a real guess at who I think is safest. You’ve got Youn Yuh-jung for Minari, the grandma, one of the hearts of the film. She's been showing up everywhere she needs to. She only missed a Golden Globes nomination and it was expected the Globes wouldn’t nominate Minari as much as everywhere else. Olivia Colman for The Father continues to show up despite her lack of screen time. Although it was surprising to see her miss at the BAFTAs seeing as she’s a Brit herself [said in a British accent]. I think Glenn Close will still get nominated. Jodie Foster shocked the world with her win at the Globes in this category. That put her in the race. I think it’s going to be a bit like the Kathy Bates situation, when she got nominated at the Golden Globes and the Oscars for Richard Jewell. Then the fifth spot. I was planning on leaving her out, but after a lot of thinking, after looking at the stats, there’s only one person in this group who got nominated at Golden Globes, Critics, SAG, BAFTAs and it’s Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. She’s the only one to show up for all four. I can’t deny the evidence in front of me. And that means I have to snub someone and it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank, who I once thought could win this category, for the sole reason that she didn’t get nominated at SAG. And there’s crossover between the academy and SAG, so you have to take that into consideration.
Predictions:
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Next in Line: Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Long Shot: Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Adapted Screenplay
William: This again is the easy, safe five. There seems to be a big question over how much people like News of the World. And there’s been this rise of The White Tiger, all of a sudden, showing up in screenplay nominations in random places. You have the favorites, Nomadland and the three play adaptations [One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father], and then you have News of the World. The BAFTAs put The White Tiger and The Mauritanian in. There’s hope that the fan favorites, First Cow and I’m Thinking Of Ending Things could get in. And then Borat Subsequent Moviefilm keeps showing up all over the place, everywhere you look, there it is.
Predictions:
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Father
News of the World
Next in Line: The White Tiger, The Mauritanian
Long Shot: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Original Screenplay
William: Sorkin, obviously, here you go, take a seat, you’re nominated. After that, we’ve seen the rise of support and love for Promising Young Woman, especially the screenplay. It’s been getting wins. You’ve got Mank, a screenplay about writing a screenplay. C’mon. Take a seat. You’re in. You’ve got Minari, a nice, safe bet for a Best Picture nomination. Might as well give it a screenplay nomination as well. Then, who knows? Could it be Judas and the Black Messiah? Or Sound of Metal, which has been getting screenplay nominations left and right. I believe the academy is not going to like Sound of Metal as much as everyone thinks they are. It’s indy. It’s not the obvious cup of tea that is served to the academy with love. While many have it predicted as getting in here for sure, I have my doubts. But because it could be a Best Picture contender, I’m putting it in.
Predictions:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Minari
Sound of Metal
Next in Line: Judas and the Black Messiah, Soul
Long Shot: Another Round, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs
Best Animated Feature
William: The three favorites are clearly Soul, Wolfwalker and Onward and those will likely be followed by The Croods: A New Age and Over the Moon. Those five have been getting nominated together in animated feature categories over and over again. There have been a few upsets here and there for Over the Moon and The Croods, so don’t be surprised if you see The Willoughbys or Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon get in. I hope I don’t have to watch Shaun the Sheep movie.
Annie: That’s funny.
William: It’s because it’s stop motion and often the stop motion movie gets in, so people think it is a possibility. But I doubt it.
Annie: I just want to quickly read the Shaun and the Sheep description I just found.
William: I’d love to hear about it. I know nothing about this movie.
Annie: When an alien possessing strange powers crash lands near Mossy Bottom Farm, Shaun the Sheep quickly makes a new friend!
William: [almost does a literal spit take]
Annie: Together they must run from a dangerous organization who wants to capture the intergalactic visitor.
William: I had a sip of water when you said that and I almost spit it out.
Predictions:
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
The Croods: A New Age
Next in Line: The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Trolls World Tour
Best International Feature (*nominations selected from shortlist of 15 films)
William: Front runner is Another Round from Denmark. Then you’ve got Two of Us. After that, Quo Vadis, Aida?, it’s from Bosnia, everyone says if the academy members watch this movie, it’ll get nominated. But they were worried about whether people would see it or not. It came in hot at the BAFTAs. Showing up in all sorts of categories, including Director. I think that will build excitement. Then you have Collective from Romania. It’s a documentary. I think it’ll get in at least one of the categories, International Feature or Documentary. The fifth spot is very hard to say. I’m throwing a Hail Mary and I’m going with something I just put in. Dear Comrades!, from Russia. It’s a well made film that could even get nominated in other categories. It’s in black and white, so people thought it could even get in for cinematography. It got nominated at BAFTAs for International Film. I’m No Longer Here is on Netflix and people like it. La Llorona has been getting a ton of nominations, including the Golden Globes, but they often don’t nominate horror films in International Features, so I’m leaving it out.
Predictions:
Another Round (Denmark)
Two of Us (France)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia)
Collective (Romania)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Next in Line: I’m No Longer Here (Mexico), La Llorona (Guatemala), Night of Kings (Ivory Coast)
Documentary Feature (*nominations selected from shortlist of 15 films)
William: Boy is this a hard category. The front runner is Time. It’s been getting nominated and winning all over the place. However, the academy does not like archival footage and Time has a ton of archival footage. My number one is Dick Johnson is Dead. Seems to have a lot of love behind it. Let it be known, Dick Johnson is actually alive. We’ve got Collective, which I mentioned earlier. You’ve got my favorite documentary this year, Boys State. I hope this gets in. It’s so good. But it hasn’t been getting a lot of those key nominations. And then you have All In: The Fight for Democracy, which could get Stacey Abrams an Oscars nomination. It depends on how timely they want to be and how much they want to consider current events in their nominations. I also have 76 Days kind of low, which is all about COVID. They sometimes don’t go for current events here. My Octopus Teacher has been getting a lot of critical nominations but at the end of the day, it’s about an octopus. Does anyone really care? You’ve got The Truffle Hunters also getting those key nominations. But it’s slow. Are they going to be going for more exciting stuff? You’ve got Crip Camp, executive producers are the Obamas! It helped American Factory win Best Documentary last year. This is anyone’s race.
Predictions:
Dick Johnson is Dead
Time
Collective
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Boys State
Next in Line: My Octopus Teacher, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya
Long Shot: Crip Camp, Gunda, The Mole Agent, 76 Days
