Oscar Winner Predictions
Pour yourself a glass of bubbly, put out the cheese board and get ready to watch the Oscars tonight at 7pm CT / 8pm ET. As we conclude this awards season, here are our final stats. Out of all of the nominated movies, I've watched two shorts and 17 full length films, including nine out of the 10 Best Picture nominees. I'm still bitter that I got scared and turned of Nightmare Alley and couldn't go 10/10 on Best Picture watches and if they had just nominated tick, tick...BOOM, this wouldn't have been a problem. William watched four shorts and 25 full length films, including all 10 Best Picture nominees, and he wants you all to know he may squeeze in a few more shorts before the ceremony. It's been a pleasure covering the awards beat this season! Now on to our predictions:
THE CEREMONY
Annie: This will be a more traditional ceremony, compared to last year, but the biggest change is they won’t be broadcasting all of the creative awards live. Do we have any more insight into how they’ll be showing them?
William: It seems like they’ll be editing them into the broadcast, it’ll just be shorter. But I guess everyone in the creative fields that aren’t airing live are going to be doing a silent protest and accepting their awards upside down. So that’ll be something to look out for! I think they should present everything live.
Annie: I agree. They'll be announcing some of them in advance on Twitter and during the red carpet. The whole thing is stupid, I don’t know what audience they’re trying to bring into this broadcast, which will still be three hours long. If they wanted more viewers, they should have booked Selena Gomez to host. That was their best shot; her fans will show up.
BEST PICTURE
William: I very recently switched my prediction from The Power of the Dog to CODA, and I feel crazy for doing it. But everyone’s doing it! It’s going against everything - it goes against all the stats, all the past trends, other Best Picture wins this season. But yet, here I am. It just doesn’t make any sense. Power of the Dog got over-nominated and I’m still predicting it’s not going to win Best Picture.
Annie: Well look at Mank.
William: Mank was always going to get that many nominations because it was a technical achievement. Power of the Dog was always going to get a lot too but I didn’t think it would get over nominated like it did, for Sound, Production Design, Supporting Actor. I just don’t know. I think CODA is starting to become this underdog favorite. And people might have it a little higher in their preferential ballot and that’s how you win.
Annie: I would love if CODA won, but I’m predicting The Power of the Dog. I think the CODA momentum started too late.
William: Or did it start at the right time?
Annie: The Power of the Dog has too many wins, and I don’t think The Academy is going to put CODA as their Best Picture because I don’t think it’s prestigious enough for them. I would love if they did, though!
William: People think Don’t Look Up might win!
Annie: Who? Dad?
William: If CODA wins, it’ll be the most lowkey movie to ever win.
Annie: I don’t know if that’s true. Nomadland won last year. Even though its cinematography was much more elaborate, it was a lowkey movie. Maybe that changed how people think!
A comment from our Dad: I would love to see CODA win, because I think it’s the best story. The Power of the Dog had an interesting twist, but I think it's overrated. Of all the Best Pictures, the one with the most entertainment value was Don’t Look Up.
A comment from our Mom: tick, tick...BOOM! was overlooked.
Predicted Win: CODA (William) / The Power of the Dog (Annie)
Personal Favorite: CODA (Annie and William)
BEST ACTOR
William: Will Smith has been winning everything, so we assume he wins. I think Benedict Cumberbatch or Andrew Garfield could be the upset. Andrew Garfield has been campaigning the hell out of himself. He’s everywhere. Wouldn’t it be crazy if he won?
Annie: He’s been doing press for seven months straight, and it’s had no impact on anything. I would love him to win. I thought Will Smith was great, but I think Andrew Garfield was the better performance. I would be excited to see either one win.
William: I hope people look back on tick, tick…BOOM and recognize that it’s under-nominated, but I can’t deny that it’s made for a very specific audience. Even after seeing everything, I still think it might be my favorite performance of the year.
Predicted Win: Will Smith - King Richard
Personal Favorite: Andrew Garfield - tick, tick…BOOM! (Annie and William)
BEST ACTRESS
Annie: I thought this category was going to be more of a battle than it’s turned out to be.
William: No you’re wrong. But continue. Give your opinion.
Annie: I am going to give my opinion! This is my newsletter! I thought we were going to see these actresses trading wins back and forth across award shows. I know what you’re going to say… you’re going to say these people haven’t been matched up and the nomination pools have been different each time, and you’re right. But I think this is pretty clearly Jessica Chastain’s to lose now. I think it can only go between Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman or Olivia Coleman.
William: Read my words! I have to say 'read my words,' because this is written. This is ANYBODY'S. All five of them have a chance.
Annie: What?
William: I’ve read so many anonymous ballots and so many of them are voting for Penélope Cruz. You could see the love of Kristen Stewart come up, because she’s been campaigning. Olivia Coleman is a favorite. Nicole Kidman is a favorite. Jessica Chastain has never won. This is anybody’s. I almost feel like Nicole Kidman has the worst chance. None of them were nominated at BAFTA… this thing could go anywhere! Part of me wants to just go for it and pick something crazy, but I’m going to also predict Jessica Chastain because she won SAG and there’s Academy crossover.
A comment from Sam: If Penélope Cruz wins over Kristen Stewart, we riot.
Predicted Win: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Personal Favorite: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Annie) / Kristen Stewart - Spencer (William)
BEST DIRECTOR
William: It doesn’t seem like there’s any competition. Jane Campion has been winning everything and there isn’t an obvious second place. It’s the most nominated movie, which is always good for a director win, and it’s a front runner to win Best Picture. She's a very respected director in the industry. She’s also overdue.
Annie: (sarcastic) We only just recently discovered that women can direct movies.
William: She’s the first woman to ever be nominated twice for best director.
Predicted Win: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Personal Favorite: Steven Spielberg - West Side Story (Annie/William) / Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car (William)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Annie: This is Ariana DeBose’s to lose. She’s won everywhere. I don’t think she’ll miss here. I thought she did a great job, I just don’t think she had that much to do in the movie. I think the next likeliest win would be Kirsten Dunst but that’s a long shot.
William: I’m starting to wonder if the second option, which again doesn’t matter [because DeBose will win] is Aunjanue Ellis. But I agree with everything you said. Rita Morena won the Oscar for Anita in the original, so it would be a nostalgic, legacy passing win.
Predicted Win: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Personal Favorite: Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog (Annie and William)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
William: Depending on what happens on Oscar night, we will be deciding - do the Golden Globes even matter anymore? And I think overwhelmingly the answer is no. If they choose to even exist, the Golden Globes are going to be their own thing and won’t have any influence. I say that because Kodi Smitt McPhee won at the Globes and Critics Circle, and that’s it. Troy Kotsur has won everything else. He would be the first deaf male actor to ever win an Oscar and only the second deaf actor ever. They want to award CODA in some way, and if CODA were to only win one Oscar, everyone would want it to be this one.
Annie: I’m so happy this is turning out this way. When I first watched CODA, I didn’t think it would get Oscar nominated at all.
William: I always wondered if he would be the one nomination.
Annie: And now he’s the frontrunner!
William: If there were to be an upset, it can only be Kodi Smitt McPhee.
Predicted Win: Troy Kotsur - CODA
Personal Favorite: Troy Kotsur - CODA (Annie and William)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
William: I think anything but King Richard could win. These anonymous ballots get in your head, and they’re only a few people out of the entire Academy. But when so many of them say they picked The Worst Person in the World, it starts to make you say, hold on a second. I think Belfast or Licorice Pizza are the two safest ones to predict. Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson are overdue for wins. Don’t Look Up won Writers Guild of America. There’s something about this category that makes me mad. Maybe I’m just fed up with the unpredictability. I feel like all of these screenplays, except The Worst Person in the World, were just fine.
Annie: It’s not a great group. I enjoyed four out of the five screenplay nominees, but I wouldn’t necessarily award them for the screenplay. Belfast received surprising Oscar nominations, so I think there's an appetite to have it win something, which is why I’m predicting it here.
William: I’m going to go with Belfast. I think they’re going to want to award Kenneth Branagh for writing about his life.
Predicted Win: Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Personal Favorite: Kenneth Branagh - Belfast (Annie and William) / Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier - The Worst Person in the World (William)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
William: This is between CODA and The Power of the Dog. This is anybody’s guess. I think there is a feeling that Power of the Dog got so many nominations but how many will it win? CODA has been getting a weird passion in this category but the screenplay is one of the weakest parts of the movie. People are saying the movie that CODA is based off of is bad and Siân Heder made it into a great movie. Are we awarding the best adaptation or the best screenplay?
Annie: I’m having such a hard time with my prediction here. I think the movie that should win is Drive My Car! The whole movie is the dialogue, and it’s beautiful, and I think it deserves to be running away with this category.
Predicted Win: Siân Heder - CODA
Personal Favorite: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe - Drive My Car (Annie and William)
FAN FAVORITE AWARD
William: (sarcastic) Now we have to talk about the most interesting category of the night. What is going to win Twitter’s Best Picture?
Annie: Oh god…
William: I think it’ll be rigged and it’s going to be Spider-Man: No Way Home to say they did the thing everyone wants.
Annie: They can’t have Cinderella win… [Editor’s Note: The new Cinderella was leading the poll at one point]
William: I think they just did this to reward Spider-Man.
Annie: They could have rewarded Spider-Man by nominating it for Best Picture! I enjoyed Spider-Man, and you know what? There was some great acting in it. Arguably better acting than some of these Best Picture nominees. I’m looking at you, Licorice Pizza.
William: And the sand walk in Dune.
Annie: Timothée Chalamet was phoning it in for Dune. Let’s just call it what it is. He did that movie to cash a paycheck and he phoned it in. Tom Holland did not phone it in!
ANYTHING ELSE?
William: Everyone should watch Flee.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Predicted Win: Encanto (William) / The Mitchells vs. The Machines (Annie)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Win: Dune (William) / The Power of the Dog (Annie)
COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Win: Cruella
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Predicted Win: Summer of Soul
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Predicted Win: The Queen of Basketball
FILM EDITING
Predicted Win: King Richard (William) / Dune (Annie)
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Win: Drive My Car
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Predicted Win: Hans Zimmer - Dune
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Predicted Win: No Time to Die - No Time to Die
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Win: Dune
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Predicted Win: Robin Robin
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Predicted Win: The Long Goodbye
SOUND
Predicted Win: Dune
VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Win: Dune
