Oscar Winner Predictions
It's the moment we've all been waiting for - the 95th Academy Awards air tonight at 7:00 p.m. CT / 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC. While it feels like momentum is building towards a big evening for Everything Everywhere All at Once, the other award season wins prove that it could still be an unpredictable show. My brother, William, and I are back to break down the top races and lock in our predicted wins Are we being too optimistic? We'll find out tonight!
Best Picture
Annie: This is kind of obvious.
William: But it feels like… is that bad? Everything is pointing to Everything Everywhere All at Once. And I can’t believe it. There is no obvious number two. Everyone is saying it’s All Quiet On the Wester Front because of its win record, which is a good point. But it took 90 years for a non-English movie to win Best Picture and there was so much passion behind Parasite and there’s not this passion for All Quiet. It’s hard to deny its over performance in nominations. It won Best Picture and Best Director at BAFTAs. It won Best Screenplay at the BAFTAs.
Annie: And BAFTAs has Academy voter crossover?
William: Yes. I haven’t heard anyone mention the legacy. All Quiet is a film that’s won Best Picture before.
Annie: Which is funny because I feel like we were all talking about that with West Side Story last year.
William: It feels like the rest of the movies are thrown in together, and Everything Everywhere stands out. It feels dumb to predict anything else. It feels like the only movie campaigning. Also there’s the curse that Netflix has never won a Best Picture before, despite being close, and All Quiet is a Netflix film.
Annie: I can’t believe it, I thought Everything Everywhere was going to be a movie we were crossing our fingers to win. What about Banshees?
William: What about it? It’s not winning anything! From these anonymous ballots, which I try not to read into, everyone hates Banshees. And I feel validated.
Annie: Oh god.
William: It seemed like the BAFTAs really liked Banshees and then it didn’t win Best Picture there, which seemed like its best chance. It won nothing at SAG. It won nothing at Critics Choice. That’s what happens when you go down the line. Top Gun has won nothing. The Fabelmans has won nothing. So I think it’s between Everything Everywhere and All Quiet. Sometimes there’s a clear frontrunner and it goes all the way.
Annie: Now I feel like we’re going to jinx it.
Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor
William: I think it’s a two person race, between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. I’m going with Austin Butler because it’s the kind of thing that gets awarded here, specifically in the Best Actor category. I don’t think Colin Farrell has a chance – he hasn’t won a single thing except a Golden Globe, which meant nothing because he was basically only up against Daniel Craig in The Glass Onion. Additionally, The Whale severely underperformed in nominations. It was expected to possibly get into Best Picture and certainly get into Adapted Screenplay and neither happened. It’s come to my attention that every year since sometime in the 90s someone has won an Oscar for playing a real person.
Annie: I thought this was going to be between Colin Farrell and Austin Butler heading into award season, but I agree with you based on the current outlook. And if Austin Butler loses, I think it’ll be because people don’t like that he’s still talking like Elvis.
William: Austin won BAFTA and Brendan won SAG, and they both have Academy crossover [in voters].
Prediction: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Should Win: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Best Actress
Annie: I think this is Michelle Yeoh.
William: It makes no sense other than momentum. It makes no logical sense to predict that she’ll win.
Annie: Why?
William: Why would they reward Everything Everywhere so much? Cate Blanchett has won two times before. She’s everyone’s friend. She is the whole movie TÁR and TÁR severely over-performed in nominations. This movie did critically well and was over-nominated. TÁR's going to win nothing? That makes no sense. If people liked TÁR, this is where they’re going to vote for it. But yet… why am I conflicted? Cate Blanchett wins and says she wishes she didn’t and we should stop awarding people, and Michelle Yeoh wins and it means so much to her! Again we’re seeing a split situation. Cate Blanchett won BAFTA. Michelle Yeoh won SAG. I’m predicting with my heart and not my gut. I’m predicting her so I can win with her or lose with her – I’m along for the ride!
Prediction: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Supporting Actor
William: Ke Huy Quan’s gonna win. Next category [laughs]. He’s been winning everything, except for the weird BAFTA thing, which I don’t think means anything. Everyone loves him. It’s a big career moment.
Annie: Agreed. If the night is going to go off the rails, it'll start with some weird upset here.
Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Supporting Actress
William: I don’t know what to say about this category. Every time I predict something here, I think, ‘Well that makes no sense.’ We’re going to break it down. The year started with Angela Bassett winning these awards and everyone thought, ‘I guess she’s going to win the Oscar.’ And I’ve been saying, it would be weird if they gave an Oscar to a Marvel movie, and slowly they’ve started to say the same thing. Then Kerry Condon won BAFTA and Jaime Lee Curtis won SAG, the two win Academy crossover, and Angela Bassett lost both. I think Ariana DeBose's ‘Angela Bassett did the thing’ is working in her favor. You’ve got Kerry Condon in a movie that maybe nobody likes, but people like her in the movie, and she won the BAFTA. Then you’ve got Jaime Lee Curtis… this nepo baby [laughs] that everyone likes. Maybe we want to give it to this person we all know and like and who has been campaigning so hard for this movie. Even though it would be such a weird thing to do.
Annie: If I was voting, I would pick Stephanie Hsu every time. She should be sweeping this category! It’s a huge shame that people have decided to ignore her performance in Everything Everywhere.
William: I actually liked Jaime Lee better.
Annie: What?
William: I felt like she was being a little theatrical at times. Her theater side was coming out.
Annie: That was the part! That’s what made the movie. She had to keep changing personalities and hairstyles!
[Editor’s Note: In the days following this conversation, William changed his mind and realized I was right]
William: The more I think about this Kerry Condon thing… it would be so weird for her to win! It feels too random. But I just can’t justify predicting three acting wins for Everything Everywhere. But I’ve had a weird feeling since Jaime Lee Curtis started getting nominations that she was going to win.
Annie: I can envision her winning.
William: When I close my eyes, I see her winning. I don’t know. If I predict Jaime Lee Curtis, I think I have to change my prediction for Best Actress to Cate Blanchett, because I just don’t think Everything Everywhere can win all three acting.
Annie: I will be so upset if Jaime Lee Curtis wins and Michelle Yeoh doesn’t.
William: The most above the line category wins in Oscar history is five. If Everything Everywhere wins Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director and Screenplay, it would have the most above the line category wins in the history of the Oscars. What are the odds of that? I don’t know.
Annie: To play devil’s advocate, it is a weird movie. So for it to sweep those categories and break that record, I don’t know…
Annie’s Prediction: Jaime Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
William’s Prediction: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Should Win: Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Director
William: I think the Daniels are going to win. There’s no second place, except Spielberg, but that wouldn’t make sense because no one likes The Fabelmans. It underperformed. It hasn’t won a thing.
Annie: He won at the Globes!
William: So what? The votes don't overlap. This is how confident I am, I think the Daniels have a better chance of winning Best Director than Best Picture.
Annie: Are you serious?
William: I think it’s that locked.
Annie: I keep forgetting All Quiet didn’t get nominated here.
William: If All Quiet got in here, we’d be having a different conversation.
Annie: You sound so sure. I was ready to come in and make a hard argument for Spielberg but it feels like he’s lost momentum.
William: The Daniels won DGA, and that’s what locked it for me. Remember Spielberg didn’t even get nominated at the BAFTAs.
Annie: I think The Fabelmans should get something and it makes me sad that it won’t.
William: Everything Everywhere is the work of a Director. Do you know what I mean?
Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Original Screenplay
William: I’m going with Everything Everywhere. I was predicting Banshees up until a few days ago, but changed my prediction because no one likes it. All of these people are saying they don’t like it and they’ve been ranking it as number 10 in their Best Picture ranking.
Annie: You finally found your people.
William: Banshees did win BAFTA screenplay. Everything Everywhere won WGA.
Annie: I’m going to predict Banshees here. I don’t think Everything Everywhere can win in all of these categories. I don’t know if they’ll give it Screenplay and Director. I think this is where Banshees wins its one award.
William: It is important to remember that Everything Everywhere did get the most nominations. And in second Banshees and All Quiet are tied. Do with that what you will.
Annie’s Prediction: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
William’s Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Best Adapted Screenplay
William: What’s in the screenplay for All Quiet? Gunshots? Whereas Women Talking is a screenplay! It feels stupid how oddly well All Quiet has been doing with nominations and wins, and this feels like its best chance for an above the line win. And if it wins, I’ll be upset! Women Talking is a great screenplay, a great movie, and I’m going to go with it. It won WGA, but it wasn’t up against All Quiet. Here’s my thinking. This is the only logic I have. The people who liked Women Talking and voted for it to get into Best Picture are going to want it to win something. People liked this movie because it got nominated for Best Picture, and it was missing in other award shows. If people liked Women Talking, here’s where it can win. This feels like a perfect place – if you liked this movie, you give it the award for the best part of the movie! But it’s not a home run.
Annie: I think that makes sense. It’s such a great screenplay. It’s a screenplay we should be giving an Oscar to.
Prediction: Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Should Win: Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Best Film Editing
Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Cinematography
Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design
Prediction: Babylon
Best Costume Design
Prediction: Elvis
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: Elvis
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Sound
Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Score
Prediction: Babylon
Best International Feature Film
Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Best Animated Feature Film
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Documentary Feature Film
Prediction: Navalny
Best Original Song
Prediction: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
Best Live Action Short Film
Prediction: An Irish Goodbye
Best Animated Short Film
Prediction: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Best Documentary Short Subject
Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers
