Golden Globe Predictions
The month of February flew by and just like that it's time for (belated) award season. Tonight, it's the Golden Globes! Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will reunite once again, albeit from opposite coasts, to host. I don't know what it'll look like! I don't know who will win! But to talk about it all, I'm bringing back our movie correspondent, my brother, William!! In part one of our predictions, we discuss the Hollywood Foreign Press Association & the TV categories. In part two, which will hit inboxes later this afternoon, we'll break down the movie nominations.
Note: These predictions are not who we think deserves to win but rather who we think the HFPA will select. This conversation has been edited & condensed, because we talked for three hours!
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association & Past Golden Globe Trends
The Los Angeles Times came out with an article last week outlining the corruption within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) and the Golden Globes, including the fact that the HFPA has no Black members. Before we get into our predictions, let’s talk about the Globes and HFPA.
In short, it’s really a publicity grab. It’s the first major televised award show for films of the year. It tells people what movies they should be watching based on what gets nominated. And that’s why it’s so concerning looking at the nominees and seeing what they've left out.
What was surprising to you in terms of what was nominated and what was snubbed?
The biggest surprise was Meryl Streep – the queen of the Golden Globes – getting snubbed. She’s the most nominated actor in history at the Golden Globes with 32 nominations and nine wins, including a Cecil B. DeMille Award. The Golden Globes like their stars. They nominate stars and they award stars. This year she was snubbed twice, for The Prom and Let Them All Talk. Spike Lee’s film Da 5 Bloods was completely shut out of nominations, which is really surprising. People were surprised by Music getting nominated, because it’s pretty much universally agreed that it’s an offensive portrayal of autism in film. And then the underperformance of the films that featured primarily Black ensembles, specifically with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami not showing up in Best Picture Drama. On the opposite side of that, you have the surprises of Promising Young Woman and The Father, which did better than anyone expected.
Something I also thought was a pleasant surprise, and speaks to what a weird year it was for movie releases, was seeing March/April releases, like Emma and Palm Springs, still recognized in the nominations.
That was surprising, especially Emma. That was one of the first movies to come out. I think it helps that [Anya Taylor-Joy] was double nominated for The Queen’s Gambit, it’s definitely on people’s minds.
Were there any surprises in TV? Obviously everyone is talking about the Emily in Paris nominations, which we now know was likely due to the HFPA getting a trip to France...
It comes back to the fact that because COVID stopped production of so many TV shows, a lot of shows that would normally be here weren’t. We’re seeing a weird collection of shows competing.
TV Comedy Predictions
Let’s discuss Comedy Series.
It seems like the obvious winner is Schitt’s Creek. It swept the Emmys completely. These are their first nominations for the Golden Globes, which is crazy, they never received nominations before this year. It’s just a question of how much they’ll be awarded.
I agree, I think Schitt’s Creek is the one to beat in most of the categories. Going into the Emmys, I was hoping it would be recognized but I never expected it to sweep every category. It was such a pleasant surprise. I see it continuing its run and taking most of these categories this time around.
I don’t see it losing comedy series. If they lose, it would be the biggest shock of the night.
I think it’s locked in for comedy series. In terms of acting, I think there’s no way Catherine O’Hara doesn’t win for best actress.
I agree.
What are your thoughts on supporting awards for Dan Levy and Annie Murphy?
I think Annie Murphy is the most in jeopardy of the two. There’s competition here. The Golden Globes like The Crown. They have been nominating it since the beginning and they nominated it here. I think Gillian Anderson has been getting a lot of hype for her performance, whether it’s deserved or not. And I think Helena Bonham Carter is a very well acclaimed actress. And people love Ozark. This was also the last season of Schitt’s Creek, so I still think Annie Murphy will win. Her biggest competition is not here, because it wasn’t eligible, and that’s Alex Borstein. It was her biggest competition at the Emmys [and Annie won] and here she doesn’t have to worry about it. It’s worth noting in these supporting categories that comedy and drama aren’t separated. None of these [competitors] are comedies. She is the sole comedy person here. Who do you think has the bigger edge against her?
I think Helena Bonham Carter is the second most likely to win. She’s such a big star. But I think her part in The Crown is so limited. I don’t think it showcases her abilities, which is why I don’t think she’ll win the category. I don’t think she has enough time to shine.
I have seen multiple episodes of this season of The Crown, but I have been in and out during them. And I have never seen Helena Bonham Carter. I haven’t seen her once. I’m not kidding.
They usually give Margaret, her character, one episode where she gets to shine. Unless you watch that episode, you’re gonna miss her.
You think of this recent season of The Crown and you think of Gillian Anderson.
Gillian Anderson certainly made some choices, I’ll say that. Maybe she’ll be rewarded for her Margaret Thatcher voice. If she wins, I hope she gives the speech in that voice.
For Dan Levy’s category, I don’t know. It’s such a weird collection of people. People like The Undoing. Jim Parsons is scary as hell in Hollywood. Brendan Gleeson is playing Donald Trump, so that’s certainly relevant. And then John Boyega is the sole acting nominee for Small Axe. Small Axe is very well acclaimed. People love it. It’s this collection of five films directed by Steve McQueen and people love them. I think Dan Levy wins. He’s the star right now in people’s minds.
It’s also worth pointing out the Globes don’t do directing or screenwriting categories for TV. So for Dan Levy to win beyond Best Comedy, it would need to be here, so I agree I think Dan takes it.
There’s no obvious competition.
I think the category in comedy that could be more of a toss-up is Best Performing Actor. Ramy Youssef’s nominated and he won last year. Eugene Levy from Schitt’s Creek is a big contender. Jason Sudeikis from Ted Lasso, which has come out of nowhere in people’s minds.
And Don Cheadle is a two-time Golden Globe winner! I think this category does come down to Eugene Levy and Jason Sudeikis. I still think Eugene Levy wins. Ted Lasso has time to be awarded later, frankly. This is Schitt’s Creek’s only shot. What do you think? Are you going to guess Jason Sudeikis?
I think I’m going to say Jason Sudeikis, partially because I’m trying to be contrarian with one of these comedy picks. I feel like this is the best chance for someone else to break through and I think Ted Lasso’s gotten a lot of buzz more recently.
Final Predictions? Schitt’s Creek will sweep Comedy Series, Best Actress - Comedy, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor. We split on Eugene Levy / Jason Sudeikis for Best Actor - Comedy.
TV Limited Series Predictions
What about Limited Series?
Queen’s Gambit is the hot show right now. I think Anya-Taylor Joy is the obvious choice [for Actress].
I agree with you. I put Queen’s Gambit as winning Limited Series and Anya-Taylor Joy as best actress, with my second choice as Nicole Kidman. I think that’s the only major threat there. What about Actor in a Limited Series? This category is all over the place with a lot of star power.
Yes, of the TV this is the most stacked group of people. It’s the biggest names, all squeezed into one category. Mark Ruffalo obviously has the hype. He’s been doing very well. He won the Emmy. I think the person with the least chance is Jeff Daniels. He didn’t do anything very special with The Comey Rule. Ethan Hawke went all out in the Good Lord Bird. He’s a huge character very big, very over the top. You have Hugh Grant for The Undoing, which people love. And then you have Bryan Cranston, who is a beloved TV actor. I think Mark Ruffalo wins.
Final Predictions? Queen’s Gambit for Limited Series. Anya-Taylor Joy for Best Actress - Limited Series. Mark Ruffalo for Best Actor - Limited Series.
TV Drama Series Predictions
Let’s move to Drama.
I think everything is The Crown or Ozark. It’s whether they decide to divvy the awards out or ignore one of them. Who do you have as winning series?
I have Ozark winning, with The Crown as my second choice.
Wow. Interesting.
I actually have Ozark as winning both acting categories, with Jason Bateman and Laura Linney.
A sweep for Ozark! That’s possible.
Olivia Colman can always sneak in there.
Olivia Colman is double nominated. She’s three for three on her Golden Globe nominations and wins! She has to lose eventually [laughs]. Was this considered a good season of The Crown? Is there such a thing? They all feel the same!
I have a similar issue with Olivia Colman, even though she gets more screen time than Helena Bonham Carter. I never feel like The Crown let’s her do all she can do.
And what do you feel about Emma Corrin even being in the category?
That was surprising too. Especially seeing her go up against Olivia Colman. I thought she did a great job in this current season.
Does Emma win because Princess Diana is so cherished?
That's a good point. Now I'm rethinking everything! Maybe Emma Corrin for Best Actress?
There's a really strong argument for Ozark but at the end of the day The Crown is such a crowd pleaser I think it'll win for series and in the Actress category.
Final Predictions? It's a tough call! The Crown for Best Drama Series, Jason Bateman for Best Actor - Drama and Emma Corrin for Best Actress - Drama.
Best Original Song
Annie: Okay, let’s discuss movies! Who do you think wins for Original Song?
William: I think it is very safe to say, and maybe I'll be kicking myself for this later, Speak Now from One Night in Miami wins overwhelmingly. Leslie Odom Jr. is one of the writers of it and the performer of the song.
A: Voice of an angel!
W: Voice of an angel. If we're just talking about just the song itself, I have listened to all of these songs, it is the best song. None of these songs are in the movies they are nominated for, they're all the credits. Usually they award the song that is in the movie and they can't do that this year.
Final Prediction? Speak Now from One Night in Miami
Best Original Score
A: What about Score?
W: Soul is the front runner. This is a double nomination for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. They did the scores for Soul and Mank. I think they will win for one of those movies. I think Mank is obviously the next in line. Jon Batiste is also credited for all the improvised piano playing he does in the movie.
Final Prediction? Soul
Best Animated Feature Film
A: Do you think Soul will also win for Animated Feature?
W: I think Soul is the obvious front runner. It is a Pixar movie and since this category has existed [2006], a Pixar movie [original, not sequel] has won almost every single time. The only competition in my opinion is Wolfwalkers. It's an Apple TV+ movie which is interesting and people love it. I still think Soul is such a different movie for Pixar and will be awarded in the grand scheme of things.
Final Prediction? Soul
Best Foreign Language Feature Film
A: Do you think Minari will win here?
W: Because of what the category is called, Best Foreign Language Film, Minari is in this category. Minari is an American film but the characters often speak Korean and because of that it was deemed that it had to be in this [category]. It's about 60 percent Korean and 40 percent English, according to the producers. At the Oscars [the category is] Best International Feature, and each country is allowed to submit one film to represent the country that year. So Minari is not going to be in Best International Feature because it is an American film. I think Minari wins [at the Globes] for sure. Minari was nominated at the Critics’ Choice Awards for Best Picture and it was nominated for SAG ensemble as well. If you calculate all nominations between the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards and the SAG Awards, Minari is the second most nominated movie. It obviously only has this single nomination at the Globes but that does not erase the fact that Minari is a very beloved movie right now. There are two films it could lose too. Another Round, which is Denmark's submission for the Oscars this year. It's the front runner on a lot of people's minds for Best International Feature at the Oscars. And then you have The Life Ahead, which is in Italian film that stars Sophia Loren, who is obviously a massive star. But I still think it's not enough to beat Minari.
Final Prediction? Minari
Best Screenplay
A: Let’s discuss the Screenplay nominees.
W: We talked about the Globes loving Meryl Streep. You know who else they love? Aaron Sorkin. He has eight screenplay nominations at the Globes. They love him so much they even gave him the screenplay award for Steve Jobs. And [Trial] is a great Aaron Sorkin script. He is the front runner by far. The other options is Promising Young Woman. It received more nominations than expected and this would be a good place to reward it because the script is a central reason why people like it so much. But at the end of the day, I think Trial is just too much awards bait.
A: I agree with you. I think Aaron Sorkin is the obvious choice to win. I think it would be so exciting to see Promising Young Woman take this category. We’re seeing more and more women get nominated in screenplay and directing categories, which is amazing, but I still feel like my heart is skeptical that they’ll actually gain some big wins. I think in this case, Aaron Sorkin is still going to come out ahead.
Final Prediction? Most Likely: Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Second Most Likely: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Best Supporting Actress
Let’s move into the acting categories. Best Supporting Actress is a tough one! In both of these supporting categories, Comedy/Musical and Drama performances are combined.
In my opinion, it is between Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried and Olivia Colman. Jodie Foster gives a very transformative performance, but I think the hype of The Mauritanian isn't there. Helena Zengel is very quiet in a lot of [News of the World]. This is the only nomination for the movie besides score. I think if they liked it, you would have seen Tom Hanks nominated. Olivia Colman is receiving a lot of recognition for The Father. Then you have Amanda Seyfried. I don't see Mank doing exceptionally well and this would be an interesting place to award Mank something because Amanda Seyfried gives a good performance. She's definitely what you remember the most after watching the movie, but she's not been nominated as much as expected. She's playing the ingénue role in Mank and you know what the Globes love, they love to give awards to people playing ingénues. Then you have Glenn Close giving a very transformative performance but in a movie [Hillbilly Elegy] that people don't like. She won the Golden Globe for The Wife [2019], which was a big surprise. I think Glenn Close is going to win, but I say that with such little confidence. I think the order of likelihood is Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Colman, Jodie Foster, Helena Zengel.
I think you made a lot of great points. I have a slightly shuffled order, based on significantly less information than you’ve gathered.
I have not seen Hillbilly Elegy, so let’s keep that in mind.
Is it worth it? I have Olivia Colman, then Glenn Close, then Amanda Seyfried, so same top three, slightly different order.
Final Prediction? There’s a split! William: Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Colman / Annie: Olivia Colman, Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried
Best Supporting Actor
What about Supporting Actor?
Speaking of a difficult category…
You’ve shifted this since the last time I looked at your predictions!
This is another hard one. Sacha Baron Cohen is double nominated. He’s nominated here and he's nominated in Best Actor - Comedy/Musical for Borat. I feel he is going to win one of those. I think that the HFPA is going to really like The Trial of the Chicago 7, and this is the only actor nominated from that movie. At the Globes, and this is specifically at the Globes, you had the entire cast of the Trial of the Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami squeezed into the Supporting Actor category. It resulted in only one actor from each movie getting nominated, which is a shame. If we’re talking about my personal opinion, Daniel Kaluuya is miles above everyone else here in giving the best performance. It cannot be argued, he gives the best performance. I just don't know if they will reward him, because they don't always care about who gives the best performance. If Daniel Kaluuya loses, it is to Sacha Baron Cohen. Judas and the Black Messiah did not get nominated the way it was expected. If Daniel Kaluuya wins for this category, I think the likelihood of Sacha winning in Best Actor - Comedy goes up extremely. Sacha Baron Conan has been campaigning very hard for both of the movies he’s in. I'm kind of making my decision based on the popularity contest which is so much of what the Golden Globes is and I think Sacha Baron Cohen, unfortunately, is going to win, even though I don't even think he's the best performance in Trial of the Chicago 7. What do you think?
I came down the same way as you did. I predicted Sacha Baron Cohen, with Daniel Kaluuya in second, based on my understanding of the HFPA. Although, I disagree with you, Sacha Baron Cohen was my favorite part of Trial. I thought he stole the show.
A lot of people are predicting Jared Leto is going to win this category, because what the heck is he doing here? People think it's so weird that he's here that he just might win.
Final Prediction? Most Likely: Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Second Most Likely: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actor Musical/Comedy
What a crazy group of people this is. Obviously, James Corden shouldn’t be here. I need to say that. I don’t know how he did this.
Because the Hollywood Foreign Press loves their stars.
Is James Corden a star?
He’s a star to them!
I think James Corden has given better performances than this one. Let’s dig into it.
It’s weird he’s there. There was a thought that Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr. would both be in here for Hamilton.
I was surprised Lin-Manuel got the edge over Leslie.
He gets the edge because he’s a star and Leslie’s already nominated twice. Maybe we talk about this now, the fact that Hamilton is here is controversial. It is a filmed production of a Broadway show. It is not an adaptation, it is filmed live on stage on Broadway. One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom and The Father are all play adaptations that are now movies. This is the first time anything like this has been nominated. People feel it shouldn't have been eligible, and believe it or not, I kind of agree. I think there should be a [separate] category for this. I think the race is between Lin-Manuel and Sacha. I think Andy Samberg has a slight chance. He won a Golden Globe before for Brooklyn Nine-Nine and he hosted the Golden Globes before. Sacha Baron Cohen won before for the first Borat for Best Actor in Comedy/Musical [2007]. The only other time any actor has been nominated for playing the same character in two movies is Johnny Depp for the first two Pirates movies [and lost both times]. Are they going to award [Sacha] twice for playing the same exact character?
You pointed out earlier, these are different situations, but the animated feature film category does not usually reward the sequels in the same way original films do.
I think Lin-Manuel has the edge here.
I landed the same way. I said Lin-Manuel, then Sacha, then Andy for my top three. I’ve been wondering if Hamilton still has the power to dominate these categories, even though it’s belated. I think it still has the edge, slightly. It’s not a guaranteed sweep that it might have been if the movie version came out a few years ago. We’ve both had extensive conversations about figuring out ways to film live productions of Broadway shows and I think it’s amazing that that is happening and I hope they continue doing it in the future. I think Tommy Kail did a masterful job of capturing the energy and the power of the show and transforming it into a filmed version, which is incredibly difficult. I think it needs a second category or some time limit or another way to recognize these going forward.
I think because it seems like this is continuing. It sounds like they're going to start filming shows, which again, you and I have discussed. We love this. This is great. This should have been happening for a long time. But there are a lot announced right now, so we need to see an addition in some awards show, whether it's the Golden Globes or not, of Best Filmed Live performance. You put the Broadway shows in. You put filmed concerts in, you put stand-up in. These are art forms that are different from movies. They're just not the same. It's like nominating a stand-up comedian for Best Actor in a Comedy.
Final Prediction? Most Likely: Lin-Manuel Miranda for Hamilton / Second Most Likely: Sacha Baron Cohen for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Who do you think wins for Best Actress in the Comedy/Musical realm?
When I predicted who would be nominated, this was the category I did worst in because I didn’t see any of these nominations coming. Maria Bakalova has an edge. She is doing insanely well in the Critics Circle nominations. She has 44 nominations for this role. And you know how many everyone else has for these roles? Anya Taylor-Joy has five nominations. And everyone else has one. Maria Bakalova has 19 wins, five runner-up wins and five yet to be determined. So she is a front runner. We watched Borat Subsequent Moviefilm last night. It's really unconventional, but she is really good. If she lost, I think it would only be to Michelle Pfeiffer or Rosamund Pike. Michelle Pfeiffer gives a really good performance in French Exit. The movie just is not very good. And then you have Rosamund Pike for I Care A Lot, which is kind of a hot movie that people are discovering right now. But I think Maria Bakalova really has that edge right now.
Final Prediction? Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Picture – Musical or Comedy
Let’s discuss the first of two Best Picture categories.
I think it's between Hamilton and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. Borat is, you know, very topical. People think it's not as good as the first one. It’s worth noting, the first Borat lost in this category to Dreamgirls - to a musical. Musicals don’t always win but they often do very well. I think it's Hamilton. If you didn't nominate Meryl Streep, why would you have The Prom win? What do you think?
I have Hamilton in my number one spot. I think it’s interesting that despite the success of Borat winning in acting before that it didn’t win for Best Picture. I really, really enjoyed The Prom and Palm Springs, so I’m excited to see them recognized here.
Yes, Palm Springs is one of my favorite comedies of all time. It’s just so good. It’s such a concept you wouldn’t think would be great and it’s great.
Final Prediction? Most Likely: Hamilton / Second Most Likely: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Director
Before we discuss the Drama categories, let’s talk about Best Director.
This is brutal, because the favorite to win is Chloé Zhao for Nomadland. She's been racking up awards left and right at all these Critics Circle Awards all across the country. But the Golden Globes have only given Best Director to one woman ever; it was for Barbra Streisand for Yentl.
I also want to note that Greta Gerwig didn’t get nominated for Little Women or Lady Bird at the Globes.
Wow… Okay, so if we're looking at history perhaps Chloé Zhao’s odds are not the greatest and that's sad because Nomadland is a very well directed movie. David Fincher is a very legendary director in his own right. He directed Mank, which is about old Hollywood and you know the HFPA loves movies about Hollywood. They love movies about themselves. Aaron Sorkin could win for directing Trial of the Chicago 7, despite people feeling that is not a well-directed movie. I think it's between Fincher and Zhao. Looking at history and given how poorly women have done in this category, I think Emerald Fennell and Regina King have no chance of winning. Chloé Zhao directed Nomadland, executive produced, adapted the screenplay and edited it and is expected to be nominated for all of those things at the Oscars. I think despite all odds she’ll still win.
I also think it’s notable that three women have never been in this category before. They had other choices, they didn’t have to nominate three women, so maybe that speaks to a change in voting for this?
Yes. If we're looking at who was expected, people really thought Spike Lee with Da 5 Bloods would get nominated. Given how much they liked The Father, it’s surprising Florian Zeller wasn't nominated. There's never even been two women nominated here, so the fact that there’s a majority is worth noting. I have new confidence in Chloé Zhao, I think it’s her!
Final Prediction?Most Likely: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland / Second Most Likely: David Fincher for Mank
Best Actress - Drama
Who do you think are the top contenders here?
I think it is between Carey Mulligan, Frances McDormand and Viola Davis. Andra Day, maybe, because people say she’s so good as Billie Holiday. I haven’t seen it because it just came out yesterday. People don’t like [the movie] but they say she’s insanely good. I think Carey Mulligan is going to win because they loved Promising Young Woman and next to Screenplay this is the most likely place it would win if it's going to win it all. I think she gives a very good performance. I think Frances McDormand has the second highest chance. The movie is really her walking and driving around the country. There’s not much acting taking place, I feel, that’s kind of an unpopular opinion. Viola Davis is giving a very transformative performance as Ma Rainey but she's not in a lot of this movie. Chadwick Boseman is really the attention grabber of the movie; he's really the main character. Also, only 13 Black actors have ever won for any of the acting categories for film [at the Globes].
And the HFPA currently has no Black members.
And hasn’t for almost 20 years. It’s crazy. Any film that had a Black ensemble is not nominated for Best Picture - Drama. One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Judas and the Black Messiah, The United States vs. Billie Holiday. None of them. Something needs to change because they are worthy performances.
Final Prediction? Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
Best Actor - Drama
What about Best Actor?
Chadwick Boseman is nominated here. He passed away in August. This is his one and only Golden Globe nomination, which is stupid. He was ignored. He’s been working for a really long time. He’s been leading movies for a really long time. And he’s been ignored. Not just at the Globes. Everywhere. [His performance in Ma Rainey] is a very powerful performance. He’s the lead in this movie. He steals the show. It was adapted from a play, so it has a lot of monologues in it, and he is the one giving those monologues. Chadwick Boseman was not sharing with people outside of his family how sick he was and so no one knew. It’s believed he was pretty sure this was the last performance he would ever give. He gave it his all. I think he will win. I think Anthony Hopkins has the highest likelihood of winning if Chadwick doesn't because The Father is the Anthony Hopkins show. He is the whole movie and it did exceptionally well in nominations. And then Sound of Metal was one of my favorite movies of the year. I think it's insanely next-level good and Riz Ahmed could win for that. But this is [Sound of Metal’s] only nomination.
Final Prediction? Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Picture - Drama
The last category! Who do you think will take home this award?
I think it's really between two movies here: The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is very relevant and it is a great movie. The Golden Globes love a Hollywood ending and that's what Trial gives you. Nomadland doesn't have a plot. It’s more of an art piece. Are they going to award a movie that is a story with no plot? I don’t see Mank winning unless they just loved it because it’s about Hollywood. Promising Young Woman, I think has too high of a hill to climb to get this. I’m trying to think of what I’ll be looking for as the show is going on Sunday to indicate who will win this category.
The nominations are so split, I think it’ll be hard to tell.
Yes, if Trial doesn’t win Best Screenplay, it would certainly give me pause [that it would win Best Picture]. If David Fincher won Best Director and Promising Young Woman won screenplay, then I don’t know. If Aaron Sorkin wins for director, then Trial will 100 percent win Best Picture. You could turn off the TV and go to bed. I would say especially if The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Promising Young Woman do not win Screenplay, then that would shift my thinking. As long as Chloé Zhao wins Director and Aaron Sorkin wins Screenplay, I think it stays a battle between those two movies [for Best Picture].
Final Prediction? Most Likely: The Trial of the Chicago 7 / Second Most Likely: Nomadland
Closing Thoughts
Any final thoughts?
Because of COVID a lot of movies decided to postpone their release until theaters can be opened safely. We’re seeing things get nominated that probably wouldn’t have. There are things that would have been front runners that aren’t here because they weren’t released. It’s a weird year. But at the same time, you're also looking at a year where the movies were the most accessible they've ever been. Almost all of them came out on streaming services or if they didn't they came out on-demand shortly after their theatrical release. Because of that, there are 37 films nominated and I've seen I think 22 of them. That’s because I didn’t have to make 22 trips to the movie theaters. And I think that’s great. I wish there was more love to some of these other films, because the Golden Globes tell people what to watch and it's a little concerning that people might only watch what was nominated the most when really some of the films nominated the least are better ones to check out too.
If you had to pick one movie out all of all of these contenders, which one do you hope gets rewarded more at some of the other award shows this season?
I think Sound of Metal and Minari are going to do a lot better than they did here. I think Da 5 Bloods will show up [more] at the Oscars. I think Minari, especially, is the one to look out for.
