Oscar Winner Predictions

How many Oscars will team Oppenheimer walk away with? Just how Mickey Mouse Club will Ryan Gosling go in his I’m Just Ken performance? Will Messi the dog appear, after widespread internet support of this adorable pup, despite being supposedly banned from attending? We’ll find out tonight!

Today William and I are presenting a unified ballot - we ended up agreeing on  predicted “top of the ticket” wins and I’ve done little to no research on momentum for any of the technical categories. We now proudly present our predictions for this year’s show.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards air on ABC at 6:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM ET. This is earlier than normal!! I’ve now done by best to warn you.

Best Picture

William: Oppenheimer’s going to win.

Annie: Yes. I feel like this is going to be the whole newsletter… this season feels pretty locked.

William: I think the theme of this year’s Oscars is: expect the expected. Sometimes it’s not surprising. Two years ago, everything that won wasn’t surprising.

Annie: Two years ago was CODA?

William: Yes. The writing was on the wall two years ago.

Annie: I felt like that was surprising.

William: Not me. You were shocked, because you thought Power of the Dog was still going to happen. Oppenheimer is going to win because there is no obvious second place here.

Annie: I feel like Oppenheimer is now almost treated with an eye roll… "here we go again, Oppenheimer.” But Oppenheimer is a great movie and a very worthy Best Picture win! It’s not my personal favorite of the list of nominees, but I really enjoyed Oppenheimer and I’m excited to see it win.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actor in a Leading Role

William: Cillian Murphy.

[Long pause]

Annie: Okay, we have to say more! Let’s pull some data in here. Cillian Murphy has won everything except…

William: Critics Choice, which went to Paul Giamatti. Then they were in two separate categories at the Golden Globes, and they each won their respective categories. So sure, it’s possible Paul Giamatti could win here. But I think it’s 95 percent on Cillian Murphy. Oppenheimer has really captured the Academy’s attention this year and he is Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Actress in a Leading Role

Annie: Here’s where it gets interesting between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone.

William: Okay, here’s my theory. Emma Stone feels like the boring choice.

Annie: She has won an Oscar already.

William: And extremely recently too. Was this her third or fourth nomination?

Annie: Fourth. So getting two out of four wins? That would be kind of crazy.

William: Everything is so predictable that when people are filling out their ballots, they’re going to get to this one and if they’re feeling torn, they’re going to pick Lily Gladstone. And Lily Gladstone is obviously very deserving of this win! I would have liked to see more of her in the movie, it does feel like more of a Supporting role.

Annie: These are both such different and wonderful performances. It’s hard to compare, because Lily Gladstone is unfortunately given so much less screen time. Like I said in our Deep Dive issue, I just wish the movie had more of her. Are there screen time requirements to get into Leading versus Supporting?

William: The voters can choose whichever category they want.

Annie: Interesting. I read this article on Gold Derby about performance time in each movie and out of all the nominees here Lily Gladstone has the least, which could hurt her chances.

William: All of the people she’s up against are first billed in their movies and she’s not. She would have run away with wins in Supporting, if they’d put her there instead. But at the end of the day, I think she’s still going to win.

Annie: I’ve been going back and forth all week. I’m so torn on what to predict. Lily Gladstone also won SAG over Emma Stone, which did take place during the voting period for the Oscars. I think that could have helped shift the momentum in her favor as well. If she missed at SAG, this would be a different story.

William: The other thing that makes this difficult is Lily Gladstone wasn’t even nominated at the BAFTAs. And BAFTAs has been known to oddly predict crazy things, so there’s an argument to be made that because she wasn’t nominated, Emma Stone could win here.

Annie: Do you have Killers winning anything?

William: No.

Annie: And to me, if you’re giving Killers an award, it’s to Lily Gladstone. The heart and soul of the movie.

William: There’s also a one percent chance that Sandra Hüller wins. I’m kind of going off of a weird gut feeling with Lily Gladstone. I’m ignoring some facts, like the BAFTA miss, but sometimes you do that and go off of momentum! This is THE category to watch.

Prediction: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Actor in a Supporting Role

William: They released the anonymous ballots and because a ton of them have said they’re voting for Ryan Gosling, it’s started to get in my head a little bit. With all that being said, I think it’s still going to be Robert Downey Jr. The Academy loves Oppenheimer. And this is a guy who’s been around forever and had a fascinating career, it’ll be cool to award him as well.

Annie: It would be crazy if Ryan Gosling won over Robert Downey Jr.

William: I think I’d feel a little sick. Robert Downey Jr. doesn’t need my sympathy, but I’d feel bad!

Annie: It could potentially lead to some funny bits. But I do think this is a lock for Robert Downey Jr. That being said, I don’t think he should be sweeping all of these categories this season. All of these nominees are great, and I would have liked them to spread the love a little more. Sterling K. Brown was really moving. Ryan Gosling is great. I thought Mark Ruffalo was hysterical.

William: Mark Ruffalo doesn’t have much to do though, probably the least out of everyone here. What’s he doing? He’s playing stupid and possessive.

Annie: What’s Robert De Niro doing? Killing.

William: There’s depth! He’s being a liar. He’s being manipulative.

Annie: I cannot wait to see Ryan Gosling perform. I’m so excited.

William: I wonder if that’s giving him some potential momentum to win too. If anything crazy is going to happen, this is the category.

Annie: That would be nuts. And Ryan Gosling would be sitting there shocked.

William: I think he’d feel bad.

Annie: I’m not trying to downplay his performance, I think Ryan Gosling is amazing.

William: He’s not going to read this, it’s okay.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer

Actress in a Supporting Role

William: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. There’s a very small chance it’s Emily Blunt.

Annie: I think people need to let Emily Blunt be British in movies. Her performance is always better when she is. I can’t believe Jodie Foster got nominated here. She’s good in Nyad but… an Oscar nomination?

William: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice this season.

Prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Best Director

William: I think Christopher Nolan is going to win. He’s never won before and this is such a deserving movie for him to win. Obviously Yorgos Lanthimos did some crazy work here, so there is a possibility.

Annie: I’ve loved watching Christopher Nolan this award season. The speeches he’s given have been so beautiful, like when he won at Golden Globes and was talking about accepting an award years ago at that ceremony on behalf of Heath Ledger. I can’t believe we haven’t given Christopher Nolan an Oscar yet!

Prediction: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay

William: I think this is going to Anatomy of a Fall. There’s been a ton of momentum and people want to see this movie win and this is its best chance. The Holdovers could also win here.

Annie: You think Past Lives is in third place as a potential winner?!

William: Yeah.

Annie: Wow. I really wish Past Lives would win something, this is so disappointing.

William: Me too, but it’s not going to happen. Past Lives got under nominated. They didn’t even get an Original Song nomination.

Annie: I also forgot that Anatomy won the Globe for screenplay, against Past Lives, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon.

William: The Academy wants to give Anatomy something. They nominated it every place it could possibly get in. And this is where it has the best chance by far.

Annie: It’s so hard. This is a tough category. Except for Maestro, which should not be nominated for its screenplay.

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Adapted Screenplay

William: American Fiction got a ton of Academy nominations. It’s won Screenplay at BAFTAs and Critics Choice. And I don’t think the Academy likes Barbie. While I still wouldn’t be surprised if Poor Things or Oppenheimer won, I think this will go to American Fiction.

Annie: Wow. I wasn’t expecting you to say this. Why do you have Oppenheimer so low?

William: Because maybe this is a category they don’t win. That’s really all. This category is hard.

Annie: The matchups at other award shows haven’t been consistent in screenplay, so we haven’t seen this exact group up of nominees up against each other for various reasons, making it harder to predict.

Prediction: American Fiction

Cinematography

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Original Song

Prediction: What Was I Made For? - Barbie

Costume Design

Prediction: Barbie

Sound

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Original Score

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Live Action Short Film

Prediction: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Animated Short Film

Prediction: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Documentary Feature Film

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Documentary Short Film

Prediction: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

International Feature Film

Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Animated Feature Film

Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse

Makeup and Hairstyling

Prediction: Maestro

Production Design

Prediction: Poor Things

Film Editing

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects

Prediction: Godzilla Minus One