Oscar Predictions

It’s finally time! The Academy Awards aka the Oscars air tonight at 7 PM CT/ 8 PM ET, with extensive pre- and post-show content throughout the evening too. Even though it was a year with the weirdest movie release cadence ever, I’m really excited about this collection of best picture nominees. My brother, William, is back to break down each category and lock in predictions. For every category, we’ve predicted who will win the Oscar, and for most categories, we’ve added our personal favorites based on the films we’ve seen. This conversation has been edited & condensed.

Annie: This year, I’ve been proud of myself because I watched eight Oscar nominated movies [Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, Soul, Emma, Mulan, One Night in Miami, Nomadland, Minari], but that doesn’t even compare to what you’re doing. Tell us about your film watching journey!

William: I’ll tell you about it! There are 56 films nominated this year: 41 features and 15 shorts. I am planning to watch all of them. At the time of this being sent out, I have watched 49 out of 56. I have watched all the features but have seven shorts left. By the time the Oscars start, I will have done it! It’s been great. I watched all of these things I wouldn’t have normally watched. It started because last year we wanted to watch all nine best picture nominees and we only watched eight. To this day we’ve never seen Ford v. Ferrari.

Annie: The Oscar broadcast is being promoted differently this year. They’re saying it’s going to be “like a movie.” The other day I got an Instagram ad asking me “If the Oscars were a movie, who would you cast?” What’s going on? What do we think that means?

William: Nobody knows. Steven Soderbergh is a wacky dude and he’s running the show. We’ll see. I think it’s interesting that they’re mixing it up. I’m worried it’s just an attempt to try and make people care more, but hopefully it’s more of a vision.

Annie: Is this just a marketing tactic or is it actually going to be different?

William: It’s going to be different! But I’m here for them trying something out, why not? I’m worried with the multiple locations. Some people will still be at home. There are also broadcast locations in New York, LA and London.

Annie: As someone who works in events, I feel for anyone planning an event and I wish them the best. What snacks are you going to have while you watch?

William: Chips and guac, soft pretzels and beer cheese, mozzarella sticks. And Minari-inspired cocktails with Mountain Dew.
 

Best Picture

William: All the voting for every category is the person with the most votes wins, except for Best Picture which is preferential ballots where you rank your choices. Nomadland is the obvious frontrunner. It’s won every precursor. I think it’s very likely it’s going to win. If there is an upset, I just don't know if there’s really an obvious second place. I think it’s still Trial of the Chicago 7. It got SAG ensemble. It’s a great movie that would traditionally probably win, but it’s not a normal year. Nomadland has been building that momentum from the beginning and everyone’s loving the journey. From a lot of the anonymous ballots, a lot of people aren’t voting for Nomadland. They think it’s going to win but they are voting for something else. You almost wonder if a big feel good movie that got postponed, if that would have won Best Picture, like In the Heights. After Trial, you could see some support for Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal or Judas and the Black Messiah. When we were looking to make predictions for nominations, we weren’t anticipating that Judas, Sound of Metal and Minari would get in. But this is better! Everyone loves this lineup of movies. I think it’s Nomadland. When there’s no clear number two, the frontrunner is likely to win. I think everyone has a different number two in their minds.

Annie: Dad wanted to have a quote in here.

William: Dad, do you have a hot take?

Dad: I don’t understand the hot take element. You have to ask me a question.

Prediction: Nomadland
William’s Favorite: Sound of Metal
Annie’s Favorite: Sound of Metal / Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress

William: Honestly, anyone could win, except Vanessa Kirby. I can’t shake Andra Day’s win at the Globes. Viola Davis won the biggest precursor that would tell us something - she won at SAG against everyone nominated here except Andra Day. Everyone is predicting Viola Davis. If that happened, this would mean a couple of things. Assuming Chadwick Boseman wins and assuming Ma Rainey wins makeup and costumes, that means Ma Rainey would have won four Oscars. No film since the 30s has been able to win more than two Oscars without being nominated for Best Picture. For it to win four, especially for it to win two lead actor categories, without a best picture nomination, I just don’t see it. And Viola Davis is in 30 minutes of the movie. All of these other women are in every single scene of the movie. I don’t think it’s worth talking about Vanessa Kirby. Andra Day won a Globe and I think that secured her this nomination. It’s an incredible performance, but it’s also her first movie. Frances McDormand has won two acting Oscars, including one very recently for Three Billboards. She’s also the executive producer of Nomadland and she’s an industry favorite. I’m predicting Carey Mulligan. She’s very good in Promising. I think she has a lot of support. She's never won but she's very respected and known by the Academy. If they want to award Promising Young Woman, and maybe it doesn’t win screenplay, people like the movie, they want it to win something, and Carey Mulligan would be a great way. It’s anyone’s guess. Everyone’s won everything: Carey Mulligan won Critics Choice, Viola Davis won SAG, Frances McDormand won BAFTAs, Andra Day won the Globe. This is by far the hardest category. It’s not going to be Vanessa Kirby.

Prediction: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Wiliam’s Favorite: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) / Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
 

Best Actor

William: This looked like Chadwick Boseman was going to run away with it but now he might not. I’m very close to predicting Anthony Hopkins, because I haven’t found one anonymous ballot that isn’t voting for him so far. I just don’t know. The only two awards that have happened so far that have Academy crossover are the SAGs and BAFTAs. And Chadwick won SAG and Anthony Hopkins won BAFTAs. You could say Anthony Hopkins is British, so of course he won the BAFTAs.

Annie: That is what I was going to say.

William: Remember, The Father is one of the last movies to come out this year, so it’s fresh in people’s brains. Anthony Hopkins is really old, this might be the last time he can get an Oscar also. He might stop acting soon. It’s his career best performance. I certainly wouldn’t be upset with either of them winning. I get wanting to award Chadwick’s career the last time they’re able to. Chadwick should have been getting nominated for the next -- his career was going sky high -- it’s just a shame [this is his last opportunity]. I do think Anthony Hopkins was the best performance of the year. There’s a world in which Riz Ahmed could win too.

Prediction: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
William’s Favorite: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

Best Supporting Actor

William: Daniel Kaluuya has won everything and I think he’ll win this. It’s possible Sacha Baron Cohen could win for Trial or Paul Raci for Sound of Metal. And then there’s the whole thing about how Lakeith Stanfield is in here, which is really shocking, because he’s clearly the lead, and there is a chance the votes will split [between him and Daniel Kaluuya, both in Judas]. But a lot of the anonymous ballots I’ve seen are saying they’re not voting for Lakeith because he shouldn’t be in this category, he should be in lead. It’s certainly weird that Lakeith is there, but I’m happy he’s nominated. I think Daniel Kaluuya will win and he should win. Even though I love Paul Raci, I would still vote for Daniel Kaluuya.

Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
William’s Favorite: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Annie’s Favorite: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Best Supporting Actress

William: This seemed like the confusing category of the year, which it kind of was as far as nominations go, but now it seems clear as day that Yuh-Jung Youn is going to win, and I’m obsessed. I didn’t even know if she would get nominated, I was so worried! She’s won SAG, she’s won BAFTA, why would she lose? If people feel like Glenn Close should win because she’s been nominated a million times, I think she’s the only one who could cause an upset, because of her career and she’s been nominated and not won. I think this is one of the easiest categories. I think Yuh-Jung Youn’s got it.

Annie: Well I hope so! Because I love her. It’s funny because I feel like the first conversation we had about this [for the Globes], it was Maria Bakalova. She’s nominated everywhere, she’s winning, and now she’s not part of the conversation anymore.

William: She needed to have some more wins, like at SAG. I wonder if Jodie Foster were here, if it would still be more of a race. She won the Globe, but The Mauritanian isn’t nominated at all [at the Oscars].

Prediction: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
William’s Favorite: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Annie’s Favorite: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

Best Director

William: This is crazy. I think Chloé Zhao will win. She’s been winning everything and it’ll be history. Well, it’s already history because two women are nominated for the first time. However, you know something crazy? Every anonymous ballot keeps saying, I know Chloé Zhao’s going to win, but I’m voting for Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round. There’s some sentimental voting around it as well. His daughter passed away and it kind of became a tribute to her. It’s filmed at her school. A lot of the students are her classmates. People also love the video of him finding out he got nominated for best director. I wonder if there’s an upset it would be him, instead of David Fincher. I think it’s Chloé Zhao.

Annie: I really hope so. I think Nomadland is stunning. The direction is beautiful. When you hear more and more about the logistics of doing that filming, it’s so much more impressive.

William: And Chloé Zhao is Nomadland. She directed it, she executive produced, she adapted the screenplay and she edited it. And I’m pretty sure her partner is the cinematographer. It’s been her project. The award for her directing, feels like it’s an award for everything she did for this movie.

Annie: And she worked with all of these people who aren’t trained actors for the movie. It feels so natural, you almost don’t think about it, but that’s a huge feat and she does it so seamlessly. In one of the podcasts I was listening to, they said David Fincher would win, and I was like, WHAT?

William: He’s one of the great directors who never won an Oscar.

Annie: Why didn’t we give it to him for The Social Network, instead of Mank?

William: Wait... this is only David Fincher’s third nomination! Who cares then?

Annie: He’s got plenty of time.

Prediction: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
William’s Favorite: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Annie’s Favorite: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)

Original Screenplay

William: I have recently changed my prediction to Promising Young Woman. It won WGA.

Annie: Was Emerald Fennell up against a similar group of people at WGA? Was she up against Sorkin?

William: Yes.

Annie: Well that’s the biggest competition.

William: It was everything the same except Minari wasn’t at WGA. I think Promising is going to win.

Annie: Similar to what we just said about David Fincher, [Trial] is not Sorkin’s best screenplay, in my opinion.

William: And he’s won before.

Annie: It feels optimistic [that Promising will win] when you look at the Oscar voting of the past years, but it tracks because it’s been winning at other award shows.

William: I listen to The Next Best Picture podcast and the host has a theory that all eight of the Best Picture nominees are going to win at least one Oscar, and this is potentially one of those places that it could be Promising’s only win. But it could also be Trial’s only win. I also read that some of the Oscar voters are upset that Aaron Sorkin changes so much of what actually happened.

Annie: That’s stupid. This is a movie, not a documentary. The Oscars have been criticized for sticking to this formula for winners, but in Screenplay, they’ve been more progressive in the past, so that seems to bode well for Promising Young Woman.

William: Get Out won in screenplay. As far as anonymous ballots go, I’ve seen votes for everything.

Prediction: Promising Young Woman
William’s Favorite: Promising Young Woman
Annie’s Favorite: Even though it’s the only one I haven’t seen in this category, I’d like to see Emerald Fennell win here for Promising.

Adapted Screenplay

William: I’ve just changed my prediction to The Father. I don’t think people see Nomadland as a screenplay. Is it a screenplay? I think so. People feel like there is too much improv in Nomadland and Borat that they shouldn’t be nominated, which I disagree with. The Father is a really good screenplay. I think Florian Zeller deserves to win something for this first try of a movie that is so good. I think voters like The Father, and this would be a good place to give it something. I think I might be crazy because Nomadland could easily win.

Annie: I don’t think Nomadland should win for screenplay. I think it should win for directing. And I guess, I don’t know how much was improv or not, which to me all still funnels back to the brilliance of the direction. I think it would be nice to recognize something else in screenplay. I really enjoyed One Night in Miami. I know it’s not going to win, but that is up there for me. I liked the balance they struck in the movie between these four friends who have a good rapport and are joking around, while having these important and awkward conversations and arguments.

William: Ma Rainey not being here is a big surprise. Two anonymous ballots voted for The White Tiger, so take that as you will. I’m glad it got a nomination. Let it be known, Borat won WGA for adapted screenplay and the Guild overlaps with the Academy. 

Prediction: The Father
William’s Favorite: The Father
Annie’s Favorite: One Night in Miami

Animated Feature

William: I’ll tell you who should win, Onward. It will be Soul or Wolfwalkers. A lot of Academy voters are voting for Wolfwalkers but I think Soul has too much support. It’s Pixar, they always win when they have an original film.

Prediction: Soul
William’s Favorite: Onward
Annie’s Favorite: Soul (but it’s also the only one I’ve seen)

Film Editing

William: It seems like Trial of the Chicago 7 and Sound of Metal have been going back and forth on wins and it has me torn. Trial is very flashy editing. Sound isn’t flashy but it’s very intentional and important. I’m not predicting Trial to win anything else. I think the three it has the highest likelihood of winning, is editing, screenplay or best picture. I think if it wins only one thing it’ll be editing, because it’s flashy and they like to go with flashy. I liked the cuts. I liked how fast it moves. A lot of Academy voters voted for The Father, which was so well edited.

Prediction: Trial of the Chicago 7
William’s Favorite: Trial of the Chicago 7
Annie’s Favorite: Sound of Metal

International Feature Film

William: I shouldn’t be having such a hard time with this. It seems obvious Another Round is going to win, because Thomas Vinterberg is nominated for best director. But there seems to be a movement for Quo Vadis, Aida? which is understandable, because it’s a monster of a movie and it’s really good. I wonder if a lot of people haven’t seen it. And I think more people have seen Another Round, especially after getting a best director nomination. I don’t think Collective getting double nominated means anything. People might only want to vote for it in one category, and I think it splits the votes.

Prediction: Another Round
William’s Favorite: Another Round

Cinematography

William: I think Nomadland is going to get it. It was winning everything for cinematography until one of the cinematography guilds gave it to Mank. I think some people might be checking off the Nomadland boxes for some of these categories, if they liked the movie. No one liked Mank that much, so I wonder if no one will vote for it for anything. I think Minari should have been nominated.

Annie: It should have been!

Prediction: Nomadland
William’s Favorite: Nomadland
Annie’s Favorite: Nomadland

Production Design

William: I think this is the win that Mank gets. Hollywood movies often win in production design because of nostalgia. If there’s an upset, maybe Ma Rainey. I’m convinced News of the World has not been watched by anyone.

Prediction: Mank
William’s Favorite: The Father

Visual Effects

William: This is an interesting category. Everyone is saying Tenet will win. I think Midnight Sky, I think it should win, it’s a space movie! This is usually the category that all the blockbuster movies are in and none of them happened, so we have all this weird stuff.

Prediction: Tenet
William’s Favorite: The Midnight Sky

Sound

William: This is a new category this year. It’s usually broken up into two categories, sound editing and sound mixing, but now it’s just best sound. Sound of Metal will win. It should win. It's a groundbreaking use of sound. It’s so important to the movie. And sound is in the title!

Annie: I agree, but I will say… Soul did a crazy thing with the way they captured the sound of people playing instruments. I’m still thinking about it weeks later. You can hear the clicks of the keypads when someone is playing a saxophone. It's crazy. I’ve never heard a movie do that before. I felt like I was sitting in high school band.

Prediction: Sound of Metal
William’s Favorite: Sound of Metal
Annie’s Favorite: Sound of Metal

Costume Design

William: Annie, do you want to say anything about Emma?

Annie: Yes! Emma is my favorite movie that was released in 2020. I love it so much. I think it’s delightful. I think more happy movies should be nominated for Oscars, and I think Emma should have been nominated for best picture.

William: Have you gotten that out of your system?

Annie: Yes, is it going to lose?

William: Emma should win, It has a billion costumes, I don’t think it will. I don’t think anyone’s seen it. That’s why I wanted you to say your thing first. It came out right at the beginning of the pandemic. Ma Rainey has won everything for costumes, even though everyone only has two costumes. Ann Roth does the costumes for Ma Rainey and the Oscars love Ann Roth. Some people think Mank might win, but I don’t think so. Emma didn’t even win BAFTA for costume design. If the British people didn’t give their British movie an award for costume design...

Annie: They might be sick of Jane Austen over there! This is now a Jane Austen newsletter. It speaks to how brilliant Jane Austen is that people can keep adapting her books and making them new every time.

Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
William’s Favorite: Emma
Annie’s Favorite: Emma

Makeup and Hairstyling

William: I think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will win for its transformation of Viola Davis. You’ll be looking for Viola Davis in this movie because you can’t recognize her, also because she has such little screen time. If there’s an upset, it’ll be Pinnochio.

Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
William’s Favorite: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Original Score

William: Soul has won everything and I think it’ll keep winning. People think Mank is a possible upset, but I don’t think anything stands out as a possible upset. The biggest snub in this category is Tenet, it had a phenomenal score. This is Da 5 Bloods’ only nomination, it was so snubbed.

Prediction: Soul
William’s Favorite: Soul
Annie’s Favorite: Soul

Original Song

William: I think Speak Now is going to win. People liked Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and this is a way to give him an award. There’s a good argument for Io Sì (Seen), Diane Warren has been nominated a bunch of times and never won before. But their names do not appear on the ballot so people might not realize it’s her. Another possibility, Husavik, because it’s in the movie, and they like the song to be in the movie, and it’s a feel good moment.

Annie: Are they performing all of these at the ceremony?

William: They’ll be airing during a pre-show before the Oscars.

Prediction: Speak Now
William’s Favorite: Speak Now
Annie’s Favorite: Speak Now

Documentary Feature

William: I can’t believe it but I think My Octopus Teacher is going to win.

Annie: I want to reshare your quote from our nominations discussion when you said, “who cares about this octopus.”

William: After watching it, I care about the octopus! It seems like it’s between My Octopus Teacher and Crip Camp. The Obamas are the executive producers of Crip Camp and they also executive produced American Factory, which won last year. We really loved Crip Camp. I almost hope that wins over My Octopus Teacher in a way, but My Octopus Teacher has been winning some key stuff.

Prediction: My Octopus Teacher
William’s Favorite: Time

Animated Short

William: The shorts are always the hardest to predict. I think it is between Burrow and If Anything Happens I Love You. They love a good Pixar short, but I think they will give it to the emotional short that took Netflix by storm.

Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You

Live Action Short

William: Two Distant Strangers seems like it is the winner. It is very relevant and would be hard to resist awarding. Could see an upset from Feeling Through (executive produced by Marlee Matlin) or The Letter Room (starring Oscar Isaac) given the star power of those. The Present won the BAFTA. It’s anybody’s guess really!

Prediction: Two Distant Strangers

Documentary Short

William: Definitely the hardest short to predict. It seems like it is between A Concerto is a Conversation and A Love Song for Latasha. Concerto has a connection to Green Book, which could help. But I think what they did with Love Song is very unique and could get the win here. But very hard to say!

Prediction: A Love Song for Latasha