Oscar Nomination Predictions

It’s time for long speeches, underdogs, sweeps, snubs, red carpet hits and misses and a long list of movies to watch. It’s awards season! The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, so William and I sat down (with a guest appearance from his girlfriend Sam) to discuss the movie landscape and predict who will receive good news tomorrow morning.
Note: All predictions are listed in ranked order of most likely to be nominated.

The Awards Landscape
Annie: We did this conversation last year and the movie landscape was filled with indie films. A lot of movies hadn’t been released in theaters or were released for limited runs. This year we’re back on the standard Oscar timetable, and we’re looking at a lot of big blockbusters. What’s your take on the movie landscape for this awards season?
William: It’s definitely a different landscape. Not only in the blockbuster success, but it seems like more people watched these movies in general. People know the movies. Last year it felt like we were coming up with fake names for movies and those were all getting nominated. This year, there’s a recognition. People saw these movies in theaters and on Netflix. Some of the big blockbuster movies of the year, Spider-Man: No Way Home, No Time to Die, Dune, they’re in the running to get nominations here and there.
Annie: Is there something you’re really rooting for as we go into nominations?
William: There are some that I feel might not get into Best Picture. They’re on the fence. It’s looking good but I’m scared they’re not [going to get Best Picture nominations]. We’re talking CODA and tick, tick…BOOM! I’m rooting for a lot of things here and there. There aren’t a lot of movies that I want to win everything. I’m liking an actor here, a score there.
Annie: In terms of the other award shows, Golden Globes took place via Twitter, but that’s it. We’re not going off of any other wins right now.
William: Yes, there are nominations for everything else, but [Golden Globes] are the only awards that have happened already. Of course it wasn’t televised.
Annie: We watched it via Twitter and it was thrilling [sarcastic].
William: We’re seeing some surprises in these precursor nominations. I was happy to be able to return to the movie theater to see some of these. Although the first movie I saw back in theaters, In the Heights, is not even in the conversation, which is crazy.
Annie: It really is crazy. I kind of forgot that it came out this awards season because it came out in June. It’s sad because I’m glad to see musicals like West Side Story and tick, tick…BOOM! get a lot of love, but I think In the Heights did some really great things and it’s sad to see it not being recognized across the board. Is there anything else you really enjoyed that is getting shut out?
William: Spencer.
Sam: What about the inconsistency of movie-musicals being very popular blockbusters and then not performing very well in awards season?
William: This is true. When was the last time two musicals got into Best Picture? I believe 1968 [Oliver! and Funny Girl]. And we’re looking at that being very possible this year.
Annie: I hope so! I’ve watched tick, tick…BOOM! three times and I could watch it a fourth. I love this movie so much, but I also acknowledge it’s specifically crafted as something I would enjoy, but I’m curious mass appeal wise what people think about it. West Side Story is more universally known.
William: It’s a remake of a movie that won 10 Oscars. That’s not normal [for awards season]. West Side Story has had such a weird journey. At first it was getting so many nominations, you thought it could win Best Picture and then all of a sudden, it started to drop. I think it’ll still get nominated for Best Picture, but I think there are some people in the industry who feel like this remake of this very famous movie shouldn’t be given the same treatment as the original
Annie: This time around they had a cast that fit the actual characters in this story. I think that’s a case to make for a remake happening when you can correct some of the errors from the original.
William: The field of who can get nominated for anything is so open but it feels like the winners are determined. I think the only two movies that have a chance of winning best picture are The Power of the Dog and Belfast, but the nominations are an open field.

Best Picture
1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. Licorice Pizza
4. King Richard
5. Dune
6. West Side Story
7. CODA
8. Don't Look Up
9. tick, tick...BOOM!
10. Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Drive My Car
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No Time to Die

William: This is the first year that there will be 10 nominated movies. Last year, they could nominate anywhere between five to 10. It’ll be 10 from here on out until they change it again.
Annie: And those 10 will be?
William: It’s gotten nuts. I’m confused. I thought I felt really good, and now I’m having doubts. The discourse is confusing me. But I think I have narrowed it down to 16 out of 10 that have a chance of getting nominated. I think those are the only things that stand a chance of getting nominated. I’ve seen eight [The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, Dune, CODA, Don’t Loop Up, tick, tick…BOOM!, Being the Ricardos] out of the 16. And all of those eight, I’m predicting will get nominated.
Annie: I’ve seen five [Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, tick, tick…BOOM!, Being the Ricardos]!
William: And your five are likely going to get in.
Annie: And six if you count Dune [Editor’s note: I watched 20 minutes of Dune and then turned it off].
William: Dune doesn’t count. You did not watch Dune. You didn’t experience what we had to experience.
Sam: You didn’t get to this [mimes “the sand walk”]. If you didn’t get to this, you didn’t watch Dune.
Annie: I did get to this though [mimes when Timothée Chalamet puts his hand in a box]. I didn’t care for that movie.
William: We have two movies that are on my list only because of their extreme box office success: Spider-Man: No Way Home and No Time to Die. I think they were loved enough and talked about enough that the year that movie theaters came back, do you want to nominate these big blockbusters to show people that they’re supporting what people liked?
Annie: Two of my favorite movies of this awards season are tick, tick…BOOM! and CODA and I would love to see them get nominated. And there are movies I don’t think deserve nominations.
William: Are you talking about Being the Ricardos?
Annie: I am! What a bad movie. We should give Nicole Kidman her Best Actress nomination, she deserves it! But we don’t have to nominate this movie for Best Picture. We don’t have to do this!
William: Of the 10 I have for Best Picture, I feel the most confident about the first eight. I think Being the Ricardos and tick, tick…BOOM! are really on the fence.
Annie: I could see House of Gucci and Nightmare Alley sneaking in.
William: Easily! They’re two movies that were seen as disappointing. The hype was high and people felt like House of Gucci was not a good movie but Lady Gaga was good. And they felt that Nightmare Alley was not a strong follow-up to The Shape of Water [Best Picture winner in 2018].

Best Actor
1. Will Smith - King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
3. Andrew Garfield - tick, tick...BOOM!
4. Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Peter Dinklage - Cyrano
Leonardo DiCaprio - Don't Look Up
Nicolas Cage - Pig
Mahershala Ali - Swan Song
Bradley Cooper - Nightmare Alley

William: I feel pretty good about my five predictions. Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Andrew Garfield have been showing up everywhere. I think there is some wiggle room after that. I think Javier Bardem is a very on the fence nominee, but there isn’t an obvious replacement. If Being the Ricardos is going to get a Best Picture nomination, he makes sense for the fifth actor nomination.
Annie: Let’s talk about Pig.
William: Pig could still happen. Don’t count Nicolas Cage out. He could pop up here. He’s been campaigning really well.
Annie: Everyone should watch The Hollywood Reporter’s Actor’s Roundtable, where Nicolas Cage talks about his experience with a certain horse.
William: Named Rainman. And we won’t say anything else.
Annie: What about Peter Dinklage?
William: The people who I follow for nomination things, and I respect a lot of their opinions, most of them have Peter Dinklage in the number five spot. Cyrano is not out yet. It was a limited release, so it is technically eligible, but it’s not been widely released yet. The nominators all have access to these movies, but it’s not in the conversation. No one’s seen it [yet]. But he’s a well-respected actor in Hollywood and he’s apparently really good in it. Let’s not count out Mahershala Ali. He got the Golden Globe nomination for Swan Song, which I wasn’t expecting, and he received a BAFTA nomination.

Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
2. Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
3. Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
4. Kristen Stewart - Spencer
5. Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Alana Haim - Licorice Pizza
Penélope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
Renate Reinsve - The Worst Person in the World
Rachel Zegler - West Side Story
Emilia Jones - CODA
Tessa Thompson - Passing
Jodie Comer - The Last Duel

William: This is the category to watch. We have seen crazy things happen here. This is the category where we could see the most surprises. I could be 100 percent correct or I could see four of these people not getting nominated. I think all of them are in jeopardy. These movies all came out at different times. Through strange circumstances, it seems like the person most likely to get nominated is Lady Gaga for House of Gucci. Before the BAFTA nominations, she was in my number five slot, but now I’ve moved her up to number one.
Sam: There are a lot of Little Monsters in the Academy.
Annie: Do you think her talking about her method acting is having an effect?
Sam: I think there’s something to say about a repetitive, bait-worthy campaign. It worked for A Star is Born.
William: If there are 100 people in the room and 99 people don’t believe in you…
Annie: Top of mind, let’s talk about what’s happening with Kristen Stewart.
William: Let’s talk about the princess in the room. Or the princess not in the room. Kristen Stewart, who gives the best female performance of the year, or who gives the best performance of the year behind Andrew Garfield! Everyone including me thought not only is Kristen Stewart getting nominated, she’s going to win, she’s going to run away with this. Then something crazy happened, and that was the SAG nominations. They snubbed our dear vampire KStew. And then all of a sudden, we had to ask ourselves what is going to happen with these Oscar nominations? She didn’t win the Globe, which was kind of surprising too, I think she might win Critics Choice because people are rioting about her not getting the respect and nominations she deserves. But I don’t know. In my heart of hearts, I think she’s still going to get nominated, but sadly, I will not be surprised if she doesn’t. Jennifer Hudson, Alana Haim, or Penélope Cruz could really get in.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kodi Smitt McPhee - The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur - CODA
3. Ciarán Hinds - Belfast
4. Jamie Dornan - Belfast
5. Jared Leto - House of Gucci
Ben Affleck - The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza
Mike Faist - West Side Story
Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons - Being the Ricardos
Robin de Jesús - tick, tick...BOOM!

William: I don’t feel confident in anything. I think there are people not on my list who could get nominated. I’m tired of this category. I just want the nominees to be announced so I can stop thinking about it. Kodi Smitt McPhee seems like the frontrunner. I think Troy Kotsur in CODA is the best performance of all of these, and I think he’ll get nominated but I don’t know if he’ll win. I don’t know what’s going to happen. It’s a weird category. I’m looking at Jared Leto, and I’m going WHAT. Both Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominated both of our Belfast boys, Ciarán Hinds and Jamie Dornan, and then the SAG nominations didn’t have either of them. And only Ciarán Hinds got the BAFTA nomination. The fact that Ciarán Hinds is getting more nominations is surprising, because I liked Jamie Dornan more. If both of them miss that’ll show Belfast’s chances of winning because that would be quite a hit for them.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
4. Ruth Negga - Passing
5. Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
Cate Blanchett - Nightmare Alley
Ann Dowd - Mass
Marlee Matlin - CODA
Rita Moreno - West Side Story
Judi Dench - Belfast
Nina Arianda - Being the Ricardos

William: Ariana DeBose is probably going to run away with this. It’s interesting to see who will get in with her. We’re seeing a little bit of variation in the nominations but the main people are getting in. It feels like it’ll be those five.

Outstanding Thoughts
William: Drive My Car is Japan’s submission for international feature this year, and it’s kind of like the critics favorite movie of the year. They loved it so much, so that’s why it’s in the conversation to potentially get a Best Picture nomination. The fact that Another Round got a director nomination last year didn’t get in for picture, so I’m not sure that Drive My Car would get in for Picture. I think it would need a Director nomination as well, which just feels tough. It's a cool international movie that could break through and get more nominations. I think it could pop up in Adapted Screenplay. It’s breaking through the normal structure of just getting an International Film nomination.
Sam: The past two years we’ve seen that more consistently. With Parasite, Another Round.
William: And Roma. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Drive My Car. Just because it’s the critics favorite movie of the year doesn’t mean a ton, because the critic’s favorite last year, First Cow, didn’t get a single Oscar nomination. One more movie I want to give a shoutout to is Flee. It’s Denmark's submission. It’s an animated, international, documentary, so it’s likely to be a historic movie getting nominations in all three of those categories, which would be the first time a movie has done that. I think the film to get the most nominations on Tuesday will be Dune, because it’s such a creative accomplishment on the tech side.

Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday, February 8 at 8:18 a.m. ET/5:18 a.m. PT on Tuesday, Feb. 8. You can stream the nominations on the Oscars website and social media platforms.