Oscar Nomination Predictions

On Tuesday morning at 7:30 a.m. CT / 8:30 a.m. ET, the Oscar nominations will be announced and we'll finally know the slate of movies we'll be talking about for the next few weeks! In this newsletter, William dives into his nomination predictions. We'll dig more specifically into our favorite performances, in-depth looks at the Best Picture nominees, award season snubs and more in future issues. For now... here's what we think will be recognized on Tuesday. 

THE OSCAR LANDSCAPE
William: This year everything is so up in the air that I just decided to have fun. Here are my predictions [laughs]. There’s no category that I’m 100 percent sure of. Every year there are one or two where I feel sure. I don’t feel that way at all this year. I wouldn’t even say it’s [because of] the caliber of movies. It’s based on what’s been showing up in other places and that’s been very all over the place. There’s no consensus of 'these are everyone’s 20 favorite movies' so these movies will be nominated all over the place.

BEST PICTURE
William: I think there are six locks for best picture: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everwhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, TÁR and Elvis. These have been showing up everywhere, they are very much liked by voters, so they’re definitely in. I feel pretty good about Avatar and All Quiet on the Western Front getting in. They’re almost locks. The last two spots could go to any of these options: Babylon, Women Talking, The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, The Woman King, Aftersun, RRR or Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. I’m going to go with Babylon and Women Talking [as my predictions], because Babylon is a movie about Hollywood and boy, oh boy, are the Oscars about Hollywood. It’s a big shebang of a movie. And that’s what needs to get in, a big shebang! And Women Talking, because I just don’t know anymore. I feel like it’s such an Oscar-baity movie and even though it hasn’t been showing up as much as the others, I don’t care. It’s a gut feeling. But The Whale is tough. Between The Whale and Women Talking.
Annie: I really agree with you. Except I just don’t think Women Talking is going to get in, I think The Whale is going to get in, because of Hollywood and sexism. Women Talking has been missing in a lot of places; The Whale has momentum right now. There’s something about this movie that’s written by a woman, directed by a woman and starring all of these powerhouse women that’s missing everywhere, and I think that’s telling of how much people are recognizing it.
William: The Whale isn’t showing up. It only got a PGA nomination.
Annie: But a PGA nomination is huge.
William: The thing that’s compelling about The Whale is it’s guaranteed to have other [Oscar category] nominations and Women Talking isn’t.
Annie: And Women Talking missed at BAFTAs.
William: But Women Talking got [nominated for] Critics Choice, SAG Ensemble, National Board of Review and American Film Institute. So there.
Annie: I hope it does get nominated! To clarify my personal view.
William: There’s something about the SAG ensemble that’s making me, hey maybe.
Predictions: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, TÁR, Elvis, Avatar: The Way of Water, All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, Women Talking

BEST ACTOR
William: We’ve got four obvious people here – Colin Farrell, Austin Butler, Brendan Fraser, Bill Nighy. And who is number five? I don’t know. Everybody loves Aftersun and then they don’t vote for it. This movie is on all these people’s top 10s. I can’t imagine it won’t get anything at the Oscars, so I said to myself, what would be the most likely place it would get it in at the Oscars? I think Screenplay and Best Actor for Paul Mescal. This fifth spot is so up in the air, and everyone loves Paul Mescal in it. And then he got a BAFTA nomination. I also have Jeremy Pope as a secondary choice. People think Tom Cruise is going to get in. I have a hard time believing that.
Annie: He should not get nominated… I loved Top Gun. But an acting nomination for it?
William: I agree, what is he doing in that movie? Although I could also argue what is Colin Farrell doing.
Annie: How dare you? What are you talking about! Colin Farrell is so good!
William: Diego Calva is also possibility, but I don’t believe Diego will get nominated and Margot Robbie won’t, and I don’t think Margot is getting in. I just don’t expect that much love for Bablyon, but that could be a surprise! This is a movie about their industry.
Predictions: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

BEST ACTRESS
William: I feel less certain about this but I do feel confident about my four, but not as confident as best actor. Cate Blanchette, Michelle Yeoh, Viola Davis, Danielle Deadwyler. There’s compelling replacements here, unlike Best Actor. The fifth spot is tricky. I have Michelle Williams over Ana de Armas, but it’s tough. I don’t know what to do. I’m predicting more love for The Fabelmans [at the Oscars] than we’ve seen in other bodies because there’s always been love for Spielberg at the Oscars. It’s very rare a Spielberg movies doesn’t get into Best Picture. There is speculation that Michelle Williams could show up in Supporting Actress instead. She’s being campaigned as the lead, so that’s where I’m predicting her. You can vote for someone in any acting category but whichever category they get the most votes is where they show up. If she gets in in Supporting, it’s not my fault and I still win. Margot Robbie could get in. It's a really big performance that feels like in another year it would be a lock to get in, but there’s too much competition. Andrea Riseborough is leading an underground campaign [for a nomination for To Leslie], which Kate Winslet is the cheerleader for, would be quite interesting [if she got in].
Annie: Ana de Armas is getting in everywhere, which wasn’t expected, given how Blonde performed, so I think there’s a strong case for her. But people love Michelle Williams.
William: I might switch my prediction...
Predictions: Cate Blanchette (TÁR), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
William: We have three locks: Ke Huy Quan, Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. This is probably the least confident I am of the last two slots. I’m going with Paul Dano and Eddie Redmayne. The fact that I’m predicting Eddie Redmayne feels insane but he has not missed. I guess Brad Pitt, but I don’t see anyone getting nominated for Babylon but he’s the strongest next in line person. I think there’s something very reflective about that character that maybe some of these voters could relate to. Ben Whishaw in Women Talking… back when I thought these Women Talking people were going to get multiple nominations, I thought Ben would get in because he’s really good. Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans is very interesting. Him instead of Paul Dano could definitely happen. I also want to call out Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway because he’s apparently very good. There was at one point a big push for him. He seems like a nice guy too, so I’d like to have him on the list and let's give him a shoutout in the newsletter.
Annie: You sound like dad.
William: He seems like a nice guy. For a while I had him in because he seemed like a nice guy!
Predictions: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
William: This one is a crap shoot. This category is bananas. I think the only lock is Kerry Condon for Banshees. Everything else I could see a shocking miss. This where we’re going to get "snub" articles. Let’s talk about the big elephant in the room. William, why don’t you think Angela Bassett is a lock? She’s been nominated everywhere. She’s been winning everywhere. What’s the matter with you? I have the hardest time ever believing an actor from a Marvel movie is getting a nomination. There has been talk of this happening before with Hugh Jackman and Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever didn’t do overwhelmingly well in Oscar shortlists. But because she’s been winning, I guess she’ll probably get in. If she doesn’t get in, that’s the headline you’re going to see – Angela Bassett: Snubbed. And now we get to Everything Everywhere… I have Jaime Lee Curtis getting in because she has not missed. They’ve been campaigning the hell out of her and she’s been campaigning for herself. It’s become hard to deny. If she’s not in, I won’t be surprised. She’s just not a big part of this movie. Stephanie Hsu is my number six because she hasn’t been showing up. I think she’s far more important in the movie [than Jaime Lee Curtis].
Annie: This is just so crazy to me. I love Stephanie Hsu’s performance and it’s such a critical part of the movie and setting the tone.
Sam: You watch Stephanie Hsu’s self tape… and that movie was made because of her. The fact that she took that page and did that [performance in her self-tape]… that’s insane. They didn’t market her well enough!
Annie: The self tape is insane.
William: It’s kind of surprising that we’re talking about this, frankly, because for a while it seemed like Stephanie Hsu was the lock. Could Everything Everywhere get two acting nominations? It could happen, I’m predicting that for Banshees, but I think that would be a little crazy. I have Hong Chau getting in for The Whale, because she hasn’t been missing and The Whale has momentum right now. It was one of the last movies released this year too. The Whale is also the highest grossing limited release of 2022. I also went with Dolly de Leon for Triangle of Sadness. I have a hard time believing it’s only going to get a screenplay nomination and it’s been showing up. Carey Mulligan is a possibility. Could Jessie Buckley happen? Absolutely. If I were making these nominations, both Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy would be nominated. They’re so good, but they’re splitting votes.
Predictions: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Jaime Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Hong Chau (The Whale), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)

BEST DIRECTOR
William: I feel good about most of this. You’ve got the Daniels, Martin McDonagh, Todd Field, Steven Spielberg. I feel really good about Spielberg. I don’t think the Academy is going to snub him here. And then I think Edward Berger is going to sneak in for All Quiet on the Western Front. His movie is getting long-listed left and right. They got the most BAFTA nominations. And there’s no obvious alternative fifth person. James Cameron? People are going to be divided. Baz Luhrmann people are divided. I also think S.S. Rajamouli could get in for RRR. That could be the big get for RRR, because I think Best Picture is a bit too much of a reach.
Predictions: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Todd Field (TÁR), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)

OTHER THOUGHTS?
William: I’m predicting Banshees getting the most nominations. Expect Everything Everywhere to do well. A big question is how well All Quiet will do because it’s kind of a late bloomer here. I’m curious how many nominations it’ll get, that’s one of the things I’m most excited to see. Expect Avatar to do well in the tech categories. It’ll be interesting to see how well Top Gun does. It might over perform. The biggest question is how is The Fabelmans going to do. This could go either way. Same with Babylon.