2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions
With the Golden Globes (yikes), Emmys (fun) and Critics Choice (didn’t watch) under out belts, awards season is in full swing. The Oscar nominations will be announced by Zazie Beetz and, one of my favorite nepo babies, Jack Quaid on Tuesday, January 23 at 8:30 AM ET / 7:30 AM CT on Good Morning America. My brother, William, is back to break down the Oscar outlook with me ahead of this week’s nominations.
The 2024 Oscar Outlook
Annie: I’m so excited because this is the most prepared I’ve ever been for this conversation.
William: Are you kidding me? I’m the least prepared I’ve ever been.
Annie: I have notes. I have lists for the main categories. I’ve seen most of the movies. I’m so prepped. Normally I’m just making things up at this stage.
William: Wow, well then you can lead the conversation.
Annie: You say you’re not prepared but you’ve sent me a whole spreadsheet with all of your predictions.
William: But this is why I’m losing my mind. I’m having a horrible time.
Annie: I think this is one of the most straightforward years!
William: I don’t think it’s going to be straightforward.
Best Picture
Annie: I think these 10 movies are a lock.
William: Everyone seems to think so.
Annie: And these movies are consistently getting nominated. This is the Producer Guild of America’s 10. Anything else in the conversation, like The Color Purple, All of Us Strangers, Saltburn, is just so far behind. Out of everything on this list, which movie do you think is the most at risk?
William: Probably one of the international ones [Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest], because they’ve never nominated two international movies in Best Picture before. There could be a surprise but people can’t seem to agree on what the surprise nomination would be.
Annie: I agree, there isn’t a strong alternative nomination.
William: This is one of those years where if they weren’t requiring 10 nominations, there could have been five. I don’t know if there’s that much passion for all 10 of these movies.
Annie: I think this is such a good group of nominations. It’s so different from a normal list of Oscar movies. For one thing, I watched most of these because I actively wanted to see them, not because I thought they were going to be nominated for Best Picture and felt like I had to! So in a way I’m glad, because in a world where they aren’t picking 10, maybe something like Past Lives gets shut out. And I’m so glad to see it here.
William: People are saying if something’s going to miss here it’ll be Past Lives.
Annie: I’m so worried. But it’s showing up consistently at every award show, so I think it’ll be fine.
William: You can call this section “An Easy Best Picture Race?” Question mark?
Predicted Nominees:
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Past Lives
American Fiction
Maestro
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest
Best Actor
William: I think it’s Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright and Leonardo DiCaprio. But there could be a different fifth choice here [in Leo’s spot].
Annie: I have Colman Domingo instead of Leo.
William: You’re not alone in thinking that. At the end of the day, Leo always shows up. But he’s not campaigning. He’s campaigning for the movie and for Lily Gladstone but not for himself.
Annie: It would be so lovely to see Andrew Scott slip in here. I’ll never watch All of Us Strangers, because it will destroy me. But I love Andrew Scott and I saw a clip from this movie that made me cry. He missed at BAFTAs though, which isn’t good.
William: Barry Keoghan could also make it in.
Annie: Can we talk about how amazing it is that Zac Efron is even in the conversation here?
William: It’s pretty silly.
Annie: It’s not silly! It’s deserved!
William: We don’t know! We haven’t seen it! He could be terrible.
Annie: Could his performance in The Iron Claw be better than his performance in Hairspray? In High School Musical 3? Probably not.
Predicted Nominees:
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
William: Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
Annie: Colman Domingo - Rustin
Best Actress
William: Whatever I predict here is not going to be correct. This is a weird category! The only lock is Emma Stone. No one is predicting Fantasia Barrino to get in but I have a weird feeling that she is. And I want to be the one person that predicts it correctly. For a while, I had Margot Robbie missing here. Now I have Carey Mulligan missing, which seems stupid. Lily Gladstone missed the BAFTAs which is weird but I’m not letting that get to me.
Annie: I have the same top picks. But similar to you, I’m trying to shake things up with my prediction here. I have Carey missing and Annette Bening as my number five. I think Maestro is going to take a hit somewhere and this might be it.
William: It’s interesting that you say that because I was counting the number of places I have Maestro predicted and it feels like too much. If I pull Fantasia from my list, they’re going to read it in alphabetical order and she’s going to be the first name announced.
Annie: Keep it! Go with your gut.
William: But at whose expense? People think Margot might miss. Some people are predicting Greta Lee gets in.
Annie: Greta Lee did miss at BAFTA. Margot has not missed a nomination this season. I do think there’s a world in which Barbie really underperforms. I think they’ve really messed up their Oscar campaign and it upsets me.
William: I think they’ve relied too much on “our movie is the most popular.”
Annie: And that’s never a good way to get Oscar nominations, because the Academy hates that. It actually works against them.
William: Exactly. Ask Tom Cruise about Top Gun: Maverick.
Predicted Nominees:
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Margot Robbie - Barbie
William: Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
Annie: Annette Bening - Nyad
Best Director
William: I am one of few people in this world predicting Greta Gerwig.
Annie: And I’m right there with you. But I don’t feel good about her odds.
William: Barbie isn’t a “director-y” movie in a year of very director-y movies. You don’t leave Barbie thinking about the direction. You think about the acting and screenplay. In Oppenheimer and Poor Things, the direction really stands out.
Annie: You think The Holdovers is a director-y movie?
William: No but it’s showing up everywhere. I think it’s a little director-y. It has a specific style to it.
Annie: I think Barbie has a very specific style.
William: What is the style?
Annie: Greta. I don’t think anyone else would have directed the movie this way. I think it screams her. You would have seen a very different Barbie movie if anyone else did it.
William: With the same exact script?
Annie: Yes. There’s a musical component to the whole thing, beyond just the one musical number. Her decision to not use CGI and instead do the special effects in a very specific way. The way she shot the whole set and stylized it the way that people play with Barbie dolls, by having Barbie float down from her dream house.
William: I agree. I think in terms of Barbieland, you’re correct. But when you get into the real world it’s shot like a studio comedy.
Annie: All that being said, I’ll always bet on Greta so I’m keeping her in but I think it’s likely she misses here.
William: A lot of people are predicting Yorgos Lanthimos missing. Martin Scorsese missed at BAFTA. This is another category where weird stuff can happen. Christopher Nolan is the only lock. A lot of people think Jonathan Glazer will get in for The Zone of Interest.
Annie: I think that’s the likely alternate prediction here. We’ve seen a trend where the leading International Feature that makes it into Best Picture has been getting a Best Director nomination too.
William: We could see a lot happening here. I really only feel good about predicting Christopher Nolan.
Predicted Nominees:
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Greta Gerwig - Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Annie: What a messy little category this is!
William: It is. I’m going with the safest five and not thinking about it anymore. We’ve seen the same seven people back and forth here this season.
Annie: I feel like the Oscars are going to go Holdovers crazy so I have Dominic Sessa sneaking in here. Do you think DeNiro is a lock?
William: Yes, he hasn’t missed. I had Charles Melton this morning but I’ve finally been convinced that May December is not going to get any acting nominations.
Annie: I’ve been struggling with what to do there too, but after the SAG and BAFTA misses, I’m not putting him in.
Predicted Nominees:
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
William: Willem Dafoe - Poor Things
Annie: Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers
Best Supporting Actress
William: This is also really hard. I only feel good about Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Emily Blunt. A lot of people think Penélope Cruz could get in for Ferrari. Does the Academy really like Nyad? Is Saltburn going to get anything and is this its best chance to get a nomination [for Rosamund Pike]?
Annie: I have the same five but I really don’t know what’s going to happen here. There only seems to be consistent enthusiasm for Da’Vine and Emily.
William: Even though Danielle Brooks has been making it in, I could see The Color Purple getting zero nominations. I could even see that as the headline here.
Predicted Nominees:
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Sandra Hüller - The Zone of Interest
Best Original Screenplay
William: We’ve got an easy four. The question is… what will be that number five? I’m picking May December because everyone else is. Other options are Air, Saltburn or The Iron Claw.
Annie: I don’t feel great about predicting May December at this point because of its nomination performance this season but I do have it on my list. I have Maestro missing and Saltburn sneaking in. The Maestro screenplay is bad. Can we all agree on that? It shouldn’t be nominated.
William: Maestro’s overperformance at the BAFTAs made me think it’s gotta get in here, especially in a year where Original Screenplay is not a very competitive category.
Annie: I don’t feel great about my Saltburn prediction but I’ve seen it on a lot of lists, primarily because Emerald Fennell won this category for Promising Young Woman. But the Saltburn script has been criticized.
William: It’s hard to watch Saltburn be in so much of the conversation and then predict that it gets nothing.
Predicted Nominees:
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
William: Maestro
May December
Annie: Saltburn
Best Adapted Screenplay
William: This is the category I’m most confident about. We do have to note that Barbie has moved from Original Screenplay to Adapted. It’s anyone’s guess if that’s the correct decision.
Annie: I feel so conflicted about where it should be.
William: If their definition is that it’s from a previously published work…
Annie: I think it should still be in Original but I understand the argument.
William: Based on their definition, I agree it should be Original. It’s hard when you think about a movie being based on something as Adapted, but movies about real people can fall under Original.
Annie: That’s what confuses me. You have Maestro here in Original Screenplay. You’re telling me Bradley Cooper didn’t read biographies about Leonard Bernstein? He didn’t adapt it from one specific book, like Oppenheimer. But Bradley Cooper took elements that informed the writing and story he told. Whereas Barbie isn’t based on written material, just a character with no specific personality attached to her. It’s hard.
Predicted Nominees:
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
American Fiction
Final Thoughts?
William: Something else that will be interesting is what does second best in terms of number of nominations? I think Oppenheimer will get the most. But what will be after that? It’ll be telling. It could be Barbie, Poor Things, Maestro. And in how many places will Oppenheimer show up? For example, if Oppenheimer gets a Costume nomination, that really shows support for that movie.
